Late January came and went without the rumored exhibition being so much as officially announced, never mind played. It also came and went without a courteous response from the AFL to the concerns we raised either by mail or to our Melbourne representative. It even passed without the proponents of that event coming forth to defend their efforts against our criticisms.
I'd like to say that all of that is surprising, but it isn't. The idea is far from dead however as a recent article in the Melbourne Age strongly suggests.
That's both good news and bad news. Good news because AFANA wants to see an exhibition in the US or Canada. Bad because the proponents of this event continue to hide in anonymity (AFANA has some pretty good clues who they are but because we don't have incontrovertible proof I won't publish their names). Bad because the AFL should have more courtesy and respond to reasonable inquiries from AFANA on such issues. Bad because none of the concerns we raised have been addressed by the promoters or the AFL.
As a fan, if you want to see an exhibition here in the US then you need to let the AFL know that. But I would also add that we need to make sure the AFL understands it's not an issue of promoting a local footy club or league or AFANA or an issue of promoting Australian trade and culture to footy fans here. To 99% of footy fans here it's an issue of promoting (and watching live) Australian Football and nothing else.
This last point is clearly going to be problematical to some in the footy community over here. I enjoy Australian culture, too. I feel very much at home when I am in Melbourne. I have business reasons to see trade grow between the countries (witness the recent blog on the Free Trade Agreement). However, the cost and complexity of staging the first exhibition here in over 15 seasons requires that footy gain the maximum benefit possible from such an event.
It also requires that the promoters anticipate what is going to happen when the exhibition is announced and confirmed. Even allowing for my concerns expressed in the earlier blog on this subject, it's safe to say that thousands of fans are going to travel from all across the continent to attend. Even in late January. Are they prepared? What venue is going to be used? The questions go on and on.
The time for answers is drawing nigh. If the AFL intends to go forward with this event between the 2004 and 2005 seasons, the decision needs to be made ASAP and we need answers to our concerns.
-Rob (who wonders if anybody at the AFL is listening?)
Quite by accident, I was talking to a member who rang AFANA yesterday and he asked my assessment of the new top management at the AFL. That's still pretty much an open question at this early date but among the questions facing Mr. Demetriou and the other top AFL execs is the future of some struggling AFL clubs. An interesting argument by Scott Wickstein is here:
Ubersportingpundit: AFL Perestroika.
While I'm not yet convinced the AFL is headed down to 12 clubs as Scott is, I am convinced that some of the current clubs, particularly the two or three weakest clubs in Melbourne won't be around a decade from now.
Their lifeline at the moment is the AFL's promise to run a 16 team comp until the conclusion of the current TV contract (end of 2006 season). That and the money from the disposal of the Waverley property have allowed the AFL to prop up distresssed clubs. The money and the contractual guarantee won't go on forever.
The sporting market is international as I have argued here before. Whether the AFL and the Australian sporting public fully accepts it, the reality is that the major international sporting organizations are already in the AFL's backyard. Soccer and rugby are merely the tip of the iceberg. The major North American sports bodies (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, NCAA) are already on Australian TV and their merchandise is in Aussie stores. Premier League is pushing it's marketing harder in Oz (witness the recent Essendon - Man Utd deal). When the multi-channel digital TV universe finally takes hold down-under coverage will expand even further (something has to fill all that bandwidth!). (Exercise for the Melbourne based reader: count the number of jerseys or jackets of an American college on the streets on a given day... compare it to the number of AFL jerseys and jackets.)
The AFL's future growth and survival depend on being competitive with those foreign codes both domestically and ultimately internationally. While parity NFL style or "AFL socialism" as Scott Wickstein refers to it, is desirable from a fan interest standpoint, it can be carried too far.
The weakest AFL clubs will ultimately have to fold or merge. It's simply unrealistic to think that the AFL will go on for very long past 2006 in loaning and giving extraordinary aid to clubs such as Melbourne, North Melbourne, and St. Kilda. Sure, one of them might stage a recovery in the short term as Hawthorn did after the failed merger about a decade ago. But in the longer term either there must be even more massive revenue sharing (ala baseball) or some clubs will have to go.
It's hard to think of any other major international city outside Melbourne that has so many major sporting clubs based there and competing for the same sponsorship dollars. With the entry of foreign codes into the market, that competition gets worse over time.
I can't predict just how it will happen, but mergers or other moves to cull the weaker clubs will happen between 2006 and 2010. So, if you want to know what I think of the new AFL management, the answer is they weren't hired to keep the status quo.
-Rob (watching from afar)
UPDATE: The AFL has pronounced all the current clubs safe. Excuse me, but I don't buy it. A couple of thoughts come to mind... Does anyone really believe that if the broadcasters came to the AFL and said, "the weaker clubs don't get ratings, they need to go" that the AFL wouldn't listen? Further, you'll note that the new "stratetic plan" only goes for three years.... let's see, that's 2004-2006. Oops, the TV contract ends in 2006. What a coincidence. Finally, what the AFL publicly has promised and insured by putting AUD$5 million a year into the aid fund, is that badly managed clubs or clubs simply unable to survive in the marketplace will be proped up. This is bad governance and in the long run bad for the AFL's future. It seems nothing more than a sop to those Victorian club presidents upset about the concessions to the Swans and Lions.
-Rob
The free trade agreement announced this past weekend between the USA and Australia is good for AFANA and footy. Here's why:
When AFANA left the merchandise business a few years ago, one of the contributing causes was the difficulty in importing merchandise from Australia. While some organizations skirt the law by importing under an individual's name or use other tricks as a cover such as having people "bring" their merchandise in when travel between the countries, we did not.
As our volume grew, we found the same problems those who preceded us did. The tariffs, duties, and customs delays on imports of clothing, leather products including footballs, and manufactured goods (AFL licensed key chains, mugs, etc.) was adding significantly to the difficulties of doing business. If this FTA is ratified by both countries, then almost all of that, save the post Sept. 11th security measures, goes away.
Regardless of whether AFANA ever gets back into that business in a big way, it's good news for footy fans. Import is about to get a whole lot easier. More footy related products for fans here and at cheaper prices. The lack of customs barriers will encourage other potential vendors to get into the business even if we don't. Movement of personel between Australian and American offices of businesses will be easier, too.
It's good news for the AFL and it's member clubs. No longer will the import/export laws in both countries as an excuse not to do business here. One more barrier removed.
Lot's of problems still exist in dealing with sales of AFL licensed products in the US and Canada. One problem though is about to get reduced by 99%.
-Rob (anyone want to buy a used football?)
Hi all,
In advance of a TV newsletter now in preparation (sign up here), I wanted to post a brief update on the TV coverage situation north of the Rio Grande.
Last month, AFANA was able to confirm from FOX Sports World Canada and from MHz Networks (Washington DC metro area) that those networks planned on carrying the sport again this season. More curiously however, we were told by FOX Sports World US that they would be making that decision "in a few weeks".
Curious because, one would assume that FSWC and MHz would not be sure of their position unless FOX Sports International (FSI), parent of FOX Sports World and international rights holder for the sport, had assured those networks of a source for the coverage at a reasonable cost. That in turn would mean that some US network was going to carry the sport.
As of today, FOX Sports World has yet to make a decision and AFANA is officially very concerned. FSWLD has indicated that a decision is still a "few weeks" away. The AFL season gets underway in just over six weeks. Most TV networks are well past the point of planning their coverage for early April. Should FSWLD US decline to carry the sport, something AFANA has felt for some time was a real possibility, it will be very difficult to get another network in place in time. FSI knows that and has a conflict in interest in resolving it. To get coverage elsewhere might mean giving the coverage to a competitor or demanding a rights fee far in excess of that justified. In turn, coverage on FOX affiliated networks around the world is in danger if FSWLD US drops the sport.
So far, the AFL has had little to say on the issue besides telling us we would be informed when the situation changes. That's not much assurance given past history on this issue. We'll keep asking and our inquiries will become more pointed in very near future.
AFANA will continue to follow this issue with our usual dogged determination and will keep all of you informed.
-Rob (who has a sense of dejá vú about all this...)