AFANA Footy BBS

18 rounds are in the books, 4 more to go. Carlton, North Melbourne, Collingwood, Hawthorn and the West Coast mess up most tip competitions with upset victories. Some may consider Port Adelaide over Melbourne an upset, but all footy barrackers, including Melbourne supporters, know that the Dees will fold like a house of cards.
Geelong barely slides by (lucky to have played Richmond when form was down) and St. Kilda takes back top spot on the ladder.
I still think that the premiership will be decided among three sides, Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Geelong.
Any comments, agreements or disagreements?
Remember, Geelong is the greatest team of all, because the team song says so.

> 18 rounds are in the books, 4 more to go.

Well, I'll give it a bit of a go. Here are my predictions for round 19. If you like these, give me a few days and I'll come up with some for round 20.

• Expect to see St. Kilda at the top of the ladder, holding on by percentage after disposing of Brisbane.
  
• Port Adelaide will take care of Melbourne, don't be surprised if it appears suprisingly easy, knotting those two up just below the Saints. Port is ahead on percentage regardless of the margin, but will look for a percentage booster.
  
• Brisbane will fail to join the top group by dropping a close one to West Coast. Too bad for Brisbane, as a win could put them at the top of the ladder on percentage. If West Coast can win big, they could sneak into the eight on percentage, but I doubt they'll have the accuracy necessary.
  
• Geelong will take care of Richmond fairly easily, but this year who hasn't. If Geelong and West Coast both win big, Geelong could sneak into the fourth spot, but I just don't see it happening this week.
  
• Collingwood is going to surprise Fremantle. If Collingwood can kick straight, it could be a major blowout. Fremantle will sit just a game up on the bubble pack.
  
• It hurts me to say it, but the Kangaroos are going to take out Sydney. Sydney will probably look to have the game well in hand, and find a way to lose it. Don't be surprised if Sydney fans try to find a way to say "well, we got distracted by this or that." I've got both teams on the bubble, but in the eight by percentage.
  
• In the third of three predictions I don't like making, I see Essendon falling to Carlton. I've got Carlton winning by enough that Essendon is outside looking at Sydney inside by a razor thin percentage margin.
  
• Hawthorn will probably find a way to beat the Western Bulldogs. It won't be enough to pull them out of last place. The Bulldogs should still sit ahead of Richmond on percentage, for which they can thank Geelong for an assist.
  

Well, that's my guesses for Round 19. Let me know if you think I got any of them right.

  -- RW "KC Swan" Lipp 

Okay, this time let's answer a little more seriously.

• St. Kilda's on the top by percentage right now. They close with the Kangaroos, Lions and Dockers: three teams they beat the first time, but all three in the hunt for September football. Brisbane is the best of the three, but North and Fremantle need wins to make sure they stay in the eight. I'll pick them to lose to Brisbane at the Gabba, but win the other two: 16 wins.
  
• Port Adelaide get the Bulldogs in Darwin, the Magpies at the MCG, and the Crows in an SA derby. They won all three the first time around. I don't think Collingwood is mathematically eliminated (but the WA derby makes it very nearly so), and is the only team I see having a chance. If this game is in Adelaide, it's a no-brainer. I'll pick Port to win all three: 17 wins and the minor premiership.
  
• Melbourne faces Sydney at home, Carlton, and a trip west to face the Eagles. Yet another case of a team that won all three the first time. Sydney needs the win, but probably won't get it. Carlton capitulates. The last weekend, I see West Coast winning at home, leaving the Demons at 16 wins.
  
• Brisbane travels to Hawthorn, then hosts St. Kilda and the North Kangaroos. Only St. Kilda beat them the first time. I'll tip them to win all three, putting them at 16 wins and 2nd place on percentage.
  
• Geelong hosts Fremantle, travels to Adelaide, and hosts Hawthorn. Fremantle won on the left coast, but Geelong beat the other two already. With Fremantle coming east this time, I'm going to tip Geelong to win all three, joining the pack at 16 wins. Percentage will decide if Geelong or Melbourne finishes fourth: Geelong has the advantage of an extra win, but I think Melbourne holds on.
  
• Fremantle loses at Geelong, has a WA derby with the Eagles, and loses at St. Kilda. West Coast is the only one they beat the first time, and is a game they need to win this time: they will to finish with 12 wins.
  
• Kangaroos lose to St. Kilda, face the Bulldogs in a compass point derby in the Docklands, and lose at Brisbane. Western Bulldogs is the only one they beat the first time, and is a game they need to win this time: they will to finish with 11 wins.
  
• Sydney loses at Melbourne, hosts Essendon at Telstra, and goes to see Richmond at the 'G. They lost all three of these the first time, but will not lose all of them again. Richmond is an easy pick. Essendon is a tougher call: neither team has a home field advantage, and the percentage difference is razor thin. I wouldn't bet a plugged nickle of somebody else's money on it either way, so we'll call it a draw: 11-1/2 wins.
  
• Essendon faces Collingwood, draws in Sydney, and closes with the Bulldogs. They beat all three the first time. I'd like to pick Collingwood to rise up and get it done, but I just don't see it happening. I'd won't pick the Bulldogs to get it done either: 12-1/2 wins which means I've just eliminated the Kangaroos.
  
• West Coast hosts Carlton, loses the derby to Fremantle, and beats Melbourne at home. Carlton is the only one they won the first time, and they'll do it again. They're at 12 wins, which eliminates Sydney (unless the Swans find an extra point to beat the Bombers, and then percentage eliminates the Eagles).
  
• Collingwood loses to Essendon, loses to Port Adelaide and closes with Carlton. They lost all three the first time, but in a who-cares match I'll pick them to beat Carlton: 9 wins.
  
• Carlton loses at West Coast, loses to Melbourne, and loses to Collingwood: 8 wins.
  
• Adelaide hosts Richmond, loses to Geelong, and loses to Port. They beat Richmond and Port the first time, and will beat Richmond again: 7 wins.
  
• Western Bulldogs lose to Port Adelaide, the Kangaroos and Essendon: 4 wins.
  
• Richmond loses to Adelaide, meets Hawthorn at the 'G, and loses to Sydney. Richmond beat Hawthorn last time, but we'll pick a reversal this time: 4 wins.
  
• Hawthorn loses to Brisbane, beats Richmond, and loses to Geelong: 4 wins, and the victory over Richmond cannot make up the difference on percentage because of Brisbane and Geelong.
  

  -- RW "KC Swan" Lipp 
 

With 10 teams with a chance at the finals, here are my thoughts at the moment on the finals race.
Port Adelaide — wins over Foot, Coll, Adel
St. Kilda — wins over North, Freo, loss to Bris
Melbourne — wins over Syd, Carl, loss to WCE
Brisbane — wins over Haw, St.K, North
Geelong — wins over Freo, Adel, Haw
Fremantle — losses to Geel, WCE, St.K
Sydney — wins over Ess, Rich, loss to Mel
Essendon — wins over Coll, Foot, loss to Syd
North Melbourne — win over Foot, losses to St.K, Bris
West Coast — wins over Carl, Freo, Mel

So the ladder based on my picks
Port Adelaide, 17-5, 68
Brisbane, 16-6, 64
Geelong, 16-6, 64
St. Kilda, 16-6, 64
Melbourne, 16-6, 64
West Coast, 13-9, 52
Essendon, 12-10, 48
Sydney, 12-10, 48

North Melbourne, 11-11, 44
Fremantle, 11-11, 44

Not worried about the other six sides, but wooden spoon to Footscray by a whisker.

Well, am I right or wrong?

> Fremantle — losses to Geel, WCE, St.K
> Sydney — wins over Ess, Rich, loss to Mel
> Essendon — wins over Coll, Foot, loss to Syd
> West Coast — wins over Carl, Freo, Mel

I think the only game results we disagree about are Freo-WCE and Sydney-Essendon. I really hope you're right about the Swans beating Essendon.

> So the ladder based on my picks
> Port Adelaide, 17-5, 68
> Brisbane, 16-6, 64
> Geelong, 16-6, 64
> St. Kilda, 16-6, 64

Ummmm...I know you're a Geelong fan, so maybe that has blinded you with optimism. You realize that you are picking St. Kilda to win all three games, but lose an almost 15% advantage? After 19 games, St. Kilda is at 131.19, and Geelong is 116.40, a 14.79 difference. Put another way, the Saints have outscored opponents by 499 points, the Cats by "only" 254.

My ladder should have indicated that Geelong ahead of Melbourne was a real possibility. But Geelong ahead of St. Kilda?

  -- RW "KC Swan" Lipp 

> Melbourne — wins over Syd, Carl, loss to WCE
> Sydney — wins over Ess, Rich, loss to Mel

Well, we both missed the Melbourne v. Sydney game.

I needed Sydney to pick up an extra half-win to make the eight, and right now they are a full-win ahead of pace. I now have Sydney in the eight regardless of the Essendon result.

  -- RW "KC Swan" Lipp 

> Not worried about the other six sides, but wooden spoon to Footscray by a whisker.

Over at the offical AFL web site they are running a poll on who will win the Tigers/Hawks game. If you won't tell us, will you tell them?

  -- RW "KC Swan" Lipp 

Vote in the poll at the AFL web site

Not a very good weekend for our picks.

We both got Brisbane over St. Kilda, and Port Adelaide over Collingwood. You got Sydney over Essendon, which I had called a tie because I couldn't pick. I got Hawthorn over Richmond, which you didn't pick.

We didn't have Carlton over Melbourne, Adelaide over Geelong, West Coast over Fremantle or the Bulldogs over the Kangaroos.

  -- RW "KC Swan" Lipp 

How could we have done so poorly with our picks for last week? You picked seven games thiw week, and got all seven right. The only game I missed was the 1-point Carlton win over Collingwood, a game I described as "who cares" to begin with.

As for the final ladder, you had all four teams in the Qualifying Finals, but Geelong and St. Kilda in the wrong places. You had all four teams in the Elimination Finals also, though only Melbourne is correctly placed on your ladder. You picked the Bulldogs for the wooden spoon, and they finished 14th, a game and percentage ahead of Hawthorn and Richmond.

I, on the other hand, had the top three ladder spots correct, but Melbourne instead of Geelong in the Qualifying Finals. In addition to Geelong instead of Melbourne in the Elimination Finals, I had Fremantle instead of Sydney (though I did allow for a situation that put Sydney in and West Coast out). For the wooden spoon, I had Hawthorn and Richmond reversed.

That was fun!

  -- RW "KC Swan" Lipp