AFANA Footy BBS

Just a question to all the stats gurus out there.

Looking at the last say 5 - 10 seasons, what is the average number of wins (or points) at the end of the season for the top finisher, 2nd top finisher, 4th finisher, 8th place finisher.

With my mighty Eagles sitting undefeated after 7 weeks, just looking at the likehood that they will a) make the playoffs and b)finish in top spot with home field advantage! Yes I know I am probably counting my chickens before they hatch. But after Mailthouse left I wasn't so sure John Worsfold could get the Eagles back up to the top level.

So just wondering in relation to the Eagles - how more wins before they are likely to make the playoffs, how many more wins to likely take top spot etc.

Also any details on undeafeated streaks? Is it bad for the Eagles to be peaking so early or can they ride the wave all the way thru the season? Is it too soon to book a flight to Melbourne?

Thanks for your time.

Bill

Hi Bob,

I'm sure Lisa or someone else here can provide definitive answers.

> Looking at the last say 5 - 10 seasons, what is the average number of wins (or
> points) at the end of the season for the top finisher, 2nd top finisher, 4th
> finisher, 8th place finisher.

My guesstimate is that it takes on average 18 wins to secure top sport with the number ranging anywhere from 16 to 20 in any given season. I'd also bet that to insure a finals spot takes 12 wins or more. So, you'd think 4th would be in the 14 to 16 range. But I await definite word.

> Yes I know I am probably counting my chickens before they hatch. But
> after Malthouse left I wasn't so sure John Worsfold could get the Eagles back up to
> the top level.

As a fellow Eagles fan, you are definitely counting the little ones before they hatch. In the past 10 years, I'll bet that the top side at round 11 only finished there a third of the time. Better to win the last seven of the season than the first seven.

So we're at least 5 rounds or more away from securing a finals spot and maybe 10 from securing top spot on the ladder. Time to lay back and enjoy looking down on the other 15. I never doubted Worsha could deliver.

> Also any details on undeafeated streaks? Is it bad for the Eagles to be peaking so
> early or can they ride the wave all the way thru the season? Is it too soon to book
> a flight to Melbourne?

We're not even in the realm of close on undefeated streaks. That record is in the lower 20's somewhere. Remember Carlton of a few years back?

Whether we're peaking early (and yes, that's bad) remains to be seen. We won't know where the peak is until it's past. I'd say the last Saturday in September is the point to aim for and that's a long way off. Too early to plan to go to Melbourne? It's never too early for that.

-Rob de Santos
AFANA Chairman

AFANA Blog

> Looking at the last say 5 - 10 seasons, what is the average number of wins (or
> points) at the end of the season for the top finisher, 2nd top finisher, 4th
> finisher, 8th place finisher.

Well, I pulled Lisa's reports for the last four years off the AFANA web site, and here is what I found.

• Minor premiers have had 17, 18, 18 & 17 wins.
  
• Fourth v. fifth have been 15v14, 14v14, 13v12 & 15v14.
  
• Eighth v. ninth have been 12v11, 13v12, 11v11 & 12V11.

  -- RW "KC Swan" Lipp 

Thanks Rob and KC.

Really looking to this weeks match Eagles vrs St Kilda at Subi, to be a measuring stick for just how good the Eagles are. A solid win keeps the momentum going, a loss at home would probably bring them back to the level of the other teams. Saints I rate as a top 4 team.

Great to see it made it as the 2 hour game of the week!

Keep flying Eagles.

Hey Bill,

On the consecutive wins, my Geelong boys hold the record, 23 in a row from round 12, 1952 to round 13 1953.
That includes the 1952 premiership, wouldn't be nice if 2005 would be the end of 42 years of dissapointment in Geelong?
FYI, one of my mates in Melbourne predicted on Monday (Melbourne time) that it would be your and Rob's West Coasters vs. my Catters in the big one come September 23 (USA time), the 24th (Melbourne time).
Brian

> With my mighty Eagles sitting undefeated after 7 weeks, just looking at the likehood
> that they will a) make the playoffs and b)finish in top spot with home field
> advantage!

Well, Bill, after 15 weeks, you can start making a few plans. West Coast will be at least 4 games clear after this week, and in the unlikely chance Adelaide loses to the Hawks, it would be 5 clear. At 14 wins, they are safely in the finals though I haven't calculated the mathematical probabilities (this isn't the Chicago Cubs we are talking about!). They are likely to finish 1st or 2nd giving them 2 home finals on the way to the GF. They do have a tough run home but the away games against Sydney and Geelong look to be the big danger games and they also face Adelaide and Brisbane. Even 3-4 though gets them home in top spot.

I have my West Coast tee shirt on and my jumpers in warm up mode.

-Rob de Santos
AFANA Chairman and West Coast member

AFANA home page

Yes nice to the lads firing on all cylinders. Interesting how much difference a season makes. last year I remember a few close games go against the Eagles, this year they seem to be winning those ones.

I now have my fingers crossed to see the momentum continue. Don't want to let them get too comfortable.

Long live Karl Langdon!!

Bill Flying High Buckin

>
>
> Well, I pulled Lisa's reports for the last four years off the AFANA web site, and
> here is what I found.
>

• Minor premiers have had 17, 18, 18 & 17 wins.
  >
• Fourth v. fifth have been 15v14, 14v14, 13v12 & 15v14.
  >
• Eighth v. ninth have been 12v11, 13v12, 11v11

  Well another regular season done - just looking back at your predictions from mid season to actual for this year
  Minor prem 17
  Fourth vrs fifth 14 vr 13
  Eighth vrs ninth 11 vr 11

  So pretty well spot on! Well done KC Swan

> So pretty well spot on! Well done KC Swan

Well, you're congratulating me for the fact that in the end this was just another season of footy. However, you will note that I did predict the Weagles would not be minor premiers.

          -- RW "KC Swan" Lipp