AFANA Footy BBS

Fraser Gehrig looks to take home his second consecutive Coleman Medal for most goals kicked in the regular season, sitting at 74 and 5 ahead of Barry Hall with one match left. I found myself thinking, however, that about 80 was a relatively small number of goals for the Coleman Medalist. So I went looking for some stats, and found a mystery that I'm wondering if anybody knows enough history to address. Specifically: where did the 100 goal kickers come from, and where did they go?

Kicking 100 goals is referred to as "kicking a ton". Nobody has done it for a several years now, and it used to be fairly common. But the first ton kickers are the amazing oddity.

The Coleman Medal was introduced in 1955. Over the first 13 years it was won with 54-56 goals three times; it was won with 62-69 goals six times (including 62 in '62); and it was won with 73-79 goals four times. Then, for the five years from '68-'72 the winner had 122-146 goals.

The lowest winning total of that period was 43 goals more than the highest winning total of the 13 years previous. This is similar to Babe Ruth setting a single season home record with 29 one year, and with 50 the next. Was there some change in '68 that suddenly produced a run of huge goal totals? Nobody had come within 20% of a ton, and suddenly 20% more than a ton was the low point!

Collingwood's Peter McKenna took home the Coleman Medal with 130 goals in '72. He won it again in '73, this time kicking 84 goals. While 5 goals more than any pre-'68 winner produced, his 46 goal drop in productivity is pretty significant.

Over the four years '73-'76, the Coleman was won with 84, 91, 67(!), and 99 goals. Looking at it, it appears to be a steady progression from '55 to '76, except for the five year bulge period.

Then, in the 22 years of '77-'98, the Coleman Medal winner kicked a ton 16 times, 91-98 four more times, and 81 & 86 the other two years.

But from '99 forward, the Coleman Medal winner is much closer to 90 goals. Matthew Lloyd's 96 in '01 is the only serious run at kicking a ton since then.

So we have two mysteries. What happened to the game '68-'72 to produce such amazing totals? And what happened in '99 that we now have seven straight years without anybody kicking a ton?

          -- RW "KC Swan" Lipp 

>
> Fraser Gehrig looks to take home his second consecutive Coleman Medal for most goals
> kicked in the regular season, sitting at 74 and 5 ahead of Barry Hall with one match
> left. I found myself thinking, however, that about 80 was a relatively small number
> of goals for the Coleman Medalist. So I went looking for some stats, and found a
> mystery that I'm wondering if anybody knows enough history to address.
> Specifically: where did the 100 goal kickers come from, and where did they go?
> Kicking 100 goals is referred to as "kicking a ton". Nobody has done it
> for a several years now, and it used to be fairly common. But the first ton kickers
> are the amazing oddity.
> The Coleman Medal was introduced in 1955. Over the first 13 years it was won with
> 54-56 goals three times; it was won with 62-69 goals six times (including 62 in
> '62); and it was won with 73-79 goals four times. Then, for the five years from
> '68-'72 the winner had 122-146 goals.
> The lowest winning total of that period was 43 goals more than the highest winning
> total of the 13 years previous. This is similar to Babe Ruth setting a single
> season home record with 29 one year, and with 50 the next. Was there some change in
> '68 that suddenly produced a run of huge goal totals? Nobody had come within 20% of
> a ton, and suddenly 20% more than a ton was the low point!
> Collingwood's Peter McKenna took home the Coleman Medal with 130 goals in '72. He
> won it again in '73, this time kicking 84 goals. While 5 goals more than any
> pre-'68 winner produced, his 46 goal drop in productivity is pretty significant.
> Over the four years '73-'76, the Coleman was won with 84, 91, 67(!), and 99 goals.
> Looking at it, it appears to be a steady progression from '55 to '76, except for the
> five year bulge period.
> Then, in the 22 years of '77-'98, the Coleman Medal winner kicked a ton 16 times,
> 91-98 four more times, and 81 & 86 the other two years.
> But from '99 forward, the Coleman Medal winner is much closer to 90 goals. Matthew
> Lloyd's 96 in '01 is the only serious run at kicking a ton since then.
> So we have two mysteries. What happened to the game '68-'72 to produce such amazing
> totals? And what happened in '99 that we now have seven straight years without
> anybody kicking a ton?
>

          -- RW "KC Swan" Lipp 

Hi Lisa and RW,

It is interesting that the statistics change so dramatically. However there were quite dramatic changes to the way the game was played in the periods around the late 60's, late 70's and late 90's that probably account for much of these dramatic changes. This is of course in conjunction with the fact there were some of the greatest forwards ever to play the game around that time.

1.Prior to the mid-late 60's players kicked the ball and basically never handpassed. The player credited with modernising the use of the handball is a guy name Graham "Polly" Farmer who was an aboriginal guy who came from western australia to play with Geelong in the then VFL. He is generally acknowledged as the greatest ruckman ever to play the game and was named as the ruckman in the AFL team of the century in 1999. As you could imagine, something like bringing the handball into the game as a regular feature of the game began to revolutionise the game. The handball made the game a lot quicker as players would start running past each other to recieve handballs rather than playing a mark-kick-mark type strategy. This meant that leading into space became much more popular and this in turn created space for leading forwards. Thus the game in general was becoming more attacking and if you looked at the scores over this period im sure team scores were increasing with individual goal kickers. Another defining moment for the handball was a foamous grand final in 1970 between Carlton and Collingwood. At half time Collingwood were up by 42 points and it looked like their 18 year premiership drought was over. Collingwood fans were drinking champagne at half time. Then legendary Carlton coach Ron Barassi instructed his players to "handball, handball, handball". He even told them to do this in the backline which was thought to be a cardinal sin at the time. In the end Carlton came back and won the grand final and the handball was now a true part of the modern game. This also lead to the tag "Colliwoblers" as Collingwood were to lose about 12 grand finals between 1952 and 1990 without winning one.

2.The second major change in the game which occurred in the late 70's was that the predominant kick changed from the taupedo punt (NFL style) to what is now used which is the drop punt (i.e. ball spins end over end and not NFL style). A drop punt is a much more accurate kick especially over short distances and has less room for error. It is also easier to mark. These aspects again encouraged forwards to lead into open spaces and enabled midfielders to deliver the ball with much more precision to their leading forwards. By the ealry-mid 80's the taupedo was rarely used as it is rarely used today. Again this change in the game made the game much more attacking and scores in this period were again higher than the immediately preceeding period.

3. Finally we have the dramatic changes in the game around the late 90's. Here there are a couple of aspects: a much more even competition and the use of the modern tactic of "flooding". First the AFL draft and the salary cap have made the competition much more even. WHilst the draft was initiated in 1986, it wasnt untill the mid-late 90's when it really started to "work". By this I mean that the no 1 draft picks and the top draft picks were generally "duds"
untill the mid 90's. Having the no 1 pick did not guarantee a star player as it does today. For example James Hird was drafted at no 80, and a bunch of west coast eagles stars who played in premierships in 92 and 94 were drafted well above 50 and some above 100. Thus it is only recently that the draft and the salary cap have started to really even the competition up. BY evening the competition up the star forwards dont have the opportunity to kick 14, 15, 16, 17 goals against the bottom 3 or 4 sides anymore. In fact the bootom 3 or 4 sides regualarly beat the top 3 or 4 sides today. This was rare in the past. The second reason here is called "flooding". This is a defensive tactic with some proponents arguing that the rules of the game should be changed to eliminate. Flooding is basically where the defensive side plays 2, 3, 4 "loose men" in the defensive 50 or defensive half. A lot of the time this forces the defenders opponent to follow his player and you end up with 30 out of 36 players in one half of the ground. Whilst the commentators often talk about it, it is hard to visualise on TV. When live at the game and you can view the whole field it becomes much more apparent how widespread the tactic is. This tactic has made the game much more defensive and much less free flowing. It has done so becuase midfielders are much morre reluctant to kick it long inside their 50m arc. This is beacuse the forwards dont have as much space to lead into and can often be outnumbered 2 or 3 to 1. As such midfielders often hold the ball up before kicking it inside 50m to wait for the right option to lead into a little space inside the packed 50m arc. As such the overall level of scoring is much lower and as a result the large full forward goal tallies are less occurent. This change has meant that there is less emphasis for clubs on finding and developing full forwards as they used to exist. Instead clubs try to find a range of forwards that can contribute to the teams goal scoring potential.

4. Thus these few reasons probably account for the large and sharp fluctuations in full forward goal tallies. I dont think it is necessarily because forwards get "found out" and opposition teams "know how to play against them" which causes teams to look for other options. I would actually think it is more due to the above very dramatic changes in the way the game is played. For example Hawthorn won 5 flags during the 80's when Dunstall was a key player and regularly kicking 100+ goals. When Collingwood won in 1990 Daicos kciked 90+ goals. When Carlton won flags Kernahan kicked 80+ goals. When West Coast won flags Sumich kicked 100+ goals. When Geelong made a number of grand finals Ablett kicked 100+ goals. Also in ealier times Hudson (Haw), Mc Kenna (Collingwood) and Wade (North Melbourne) were members of grand final and premiership sides.

James

>
> Hi RW -
> Interesting figures you have come up with. But my guess in scanning some of the
> records is that from 1968-72, there was a small cluster of goal kicking superstars
> in Doug Wade (Geel), Peter Hudson (Haw), and Peter McKenna at Collingwood, and Alex
> Jesaulenko at Carlton. The same can be said of the next period you mention 1977-98
> with the likes of Ablett, Modra, Dunstall, Lockett, Kernahan, Lloyd, Lynch, and Hall
> cruising the goalsquares. With Lloyd, Neitz, Gehrig, and Hall perhaps the only
> current true full forwards, it is not surprising to see goal tallies drop somewhat
> as sides develop other scoring options.
> Lloyd, even in his Coleman years, missed some games through injury and suspension,
> as has Neitz (not to mention his up and down form). However,when a side has such
> players on whom they rely too heavily for goal, obviously opposition defences are
> going to focus on stopping those players - again leading to a drop in their goal
> tallies. Of the current full forwards, Lloyd is the most accurate. Hall isn't far
> behind, but the Swans had a run of poor form this year which probably affected the
> delivery into their forward line early on. But the Swans don't need to rely on Hall
> as they have O'Loughlin, O'Keefe, Davis, and a few others who can kick goals as
> well. For Essendon, Lucas has also relieved the pressure on Lloyd as he has proved
> to be very dangerous at CHF, and the Bombers have found a clever goalsneak in
> Lovett.
> Neitz at Melbourne has been the main focus for some time. Russell Robertson has been
> in great form recently, also taking the pressure off Neitz and they sometimes use
> Yze in a forward pocket to add to their strike power.
> As for Fraser Gehrig, he's got plenty of help up forward in Riewoldt, Hamill, Milne,
> and Koschitzke pushing forward from the midfield - again leading to a lower tally
> for him.
> Hope this helps,
> Lisa
>

> However there were
> quite dramatic changes to the way the game was played in the periods around the late
> 60's, late 70's and late 90's that probably account for much of these dramatic
> changes.

Thank you for your informed insight. I was hoping somebody with your type of credentials would stumble across the message and respond. To show my appreciation, I promise not to rub in the results of the upcoming SF.

> The player credited with modernising the use of the handball is a guy name Graham
> "Polly" Farmer...
> Another defining moment for the handball was a foamous
> grand final in 1970 between Carlton and Collingwood.

I have heard of Polly Farmer, though I don't know a lot about him. I had also heard the story of the '70 GF and the success of desperation handballing. But thank you for putting that all together for me.

> predominant kick changed from the taupedo punt (NFL style) to what is now used which
> is the drop punt (i.e. ball spins end over end and not NFL style).

I recall reading a columnist lamenting the demise of the torpedo/taupedo/whatever, and wondering if there was any place for it in the modern game. I just didn't really understand it. Just like I'm still not positive what a "corked thigh" is. I often find myself feeling like the protagonist in the classic Breuer story "The Gostak and the Doshes."

This torpedo vs. drop issue is apparently at the heart of players struggling to catch Ben Graham's punts for the Jets. A drop punt may be easier to mark, but not for an NFL returner to catch.

> the modern
> tactic of "flooding".

Flooding has risen during the era when I've been able to follow the game more closely. As I understand it, Rodney "Rocket" Eade was the first to employ it heavily during his tenure at Sydney. As I recall the phrase, he told his players to defend the goal like they were defending the crown jewels. There's just not enough footage readily available over here to determine if I agree with those who say it produces ugly football.

Thanks so much for your insight, James, and good luck with your studies.

          -- RW "KC Swan" Lipp

one thing you have to remember with the torpedo in aussie rules is that the ball is a different shape to the nfl ball. the nfl ball is much more pointy and sharp at the ends compared to the aussie rules ball which is closer to a rugby ball than an nfl ball. this means the ball used in afl is much rounder at the ends. thus whilst in afl a drop punt is generally easier to mark than a torpedo, the same is not true in the nfl. it is the much more pointy ends of the nfl ball which make it easier to mark when the torpedo punt is used.
in the modern game, the torpedo is rarely used. but it does have the advantage over the drop punt that if kicked correctly it can travel upto 80 metres as compared to a drop punt which travels only 45-60 metres. the "footy show" on australian tv used to have a competition for longest kick. all players in this competition kicked torpedo punts. in fact ben graham won it a couple of times kicking the ball about 80 metres. he alos used to sometimes kick the torpedo punt from kick ins after behinds. when he kicked it properly it was definitely a sight to see.
probably one main aspect these days with the torpedo punt is that players generally dont practice it. as such coaches are generally hesitant with their players using it. there are some exceptions with some coaches. ben graham was one at geelong, dustin fletcher another at essendon, and also anthony rocca at collingwood. so i cant really see it coming back, because the game is so professional now and everything needs to be execute with a high degree of skill and reliability.
i will definitely be watching to see how ben graham goes with the jets this year. i had also heard of the spin problems with respect to the jets recievers catching his kicks.

on flooding, i think the game itself will evolve and the tactioc of flooding will pass. you are correct, it was rodney eade who started the tactic. as i was talking about earlier the game has evolved itself over the years. in fact before about 1960 their was a kick called the "drop kick" or "place kick" that was extremely common. it was the equivalent to rugby players who "drop kick" for goal. it is also similar to nfl style "kick" for goal after a touchdown except in aussie rules there was no player holding the ball and it was done whilst running. i think it would cause more damage than good to change the rules of the game to stop the use of flooding. also no team has ever won the premiership using flooding (not a good piece of news for a swan fan) and i think there is good reason behind this. flooding is essentially a very defensive tactic. one way that it can be overcome is through very quick, long and precise ball movement from the half back line through the midfield and into the forward line. these traits are the exact traits that the best teams have and the ones that premiership sides have. as such the best teams are not as prone to flooding as are some of the weaker teams who flooding can be quite effective against.

James

>
>
> Thank you for your informed insight. I was hoping somebody with your type of
> credentials would stumble across the message and respond. To show my appreciation,
> I promise not to rub in the results of the upcoming SF.
>
>
> I have heard of Polly Farmer, though I don't know a lot about him. I had also heard
> the story of the '70 GF and the success of desperation handballing. But thank you
> for putting that all together for me.
>
>
> I recall reading a columnist lamenting the demise of the torpedo/taupedo/whatever,
> and wondering if there was any place for it in the modern game. I just didn't
> really understand it. Just like I'm still not positive what a "corked
> thigh" is. I often find myself feeling like the protagonist in the classic
> Breuer story "The Gostak and the Doshes."
> This torpedo vs. drop issue is apparently at the heart of players struggling to
> catch Ben Graham's punts for the Jets. A drop punt may be easier to mark, but not
> for an NFL returner to catch.
>
>
> Flooding has risen during the era when I've been able to follow the game more
> closely. As I understand it, Rodney "Rocket" Eade was the first to employ
> it heavily during his tenure at Sydney. As I recall the phrase, he told his players
> to defend the goal like they were defending the crown jewels. There's just not
> enough footage readily available over here to determine if I agree with those who
> say it produces ugly football.
> Thanks so much for your insight, James, and good luck with your studies.
>

          -- RW "KC Swan" Lipp