by Lachlan Hellyer reporting for AFANA from Toronto
(Ed: note: Our newest contributor, Lachlan Hellyer, will be reviewing the Aussie rules season thus far in a three part series over the "bye rounds" of 11, 12, and 13. He will take a look at the progress each team has made to the midway point of the season. This week, six teams: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Hawthorn, Richmond,and Western Bulldogs, enjoy a week off. This is their season so far.)
Adelaide
Win/Loss record: 6-4
Phil Walsh promised an uncompromising style of football would be non-negotiable upon his appointment as coach. When he masterminded a brilliant 77 point victory against North Melbourne in Round 1, and backed it up in emphatic fashion against Collingwood the following week, he was hailed as a tactical genius. Adelaide were playing unstoppable football, but his team hasn’t reached the same heights in the ensuing weeks, and for one reason or another, Walsh’s legendary 18-man press has failed more often than it has succeeded.
As an assistant coach at Port Adelaide, Walsh was credited with plotting the great Brisbane Lions’ downfall in the 2004 Grand Final, a team who had won each of the previous three premierships. In 2011, this time an assistant with West Coast, Phil Walsh was credited with developing the game plan that saw them rise from last in 2010 to Preliminary Finalists in 2011. The basis of his strategy was the implementation of the full ground 18-man press, a system that requires all players on the team to push up the ground and lock the ball in their own attacking half, essentially turning all players into defenders when they don’t have the ball in their hands.
Collingwood, under legendary coach Michael Malthouse, had perfected the forward press by 2010. Both Hawthorn under Alastair Clarkson and St Kilda under Ross Lyon had begun experimenting with early versions of the press in the preceding few years, Hawthorn won a premiership doing it in 2008, and St Kilda fell agonizingly shy of Geelong in 2009, so coaches immediately tried to emulate it. It was Geelong under coach Chris Scott in 2011 that formulated the game plan that brought about an end to the forward press as the dominant coaching strategy in the game, if only for a short time.
Adelaide, at 6-4, are well placed to reach the finals in 2015. A series of injuries to key personnel has made the demands of Phil Walsh’s game style on his available players harder to reach week after week, often able to hold the ball inside their attacking half of the ground, but lacking the quality of some of their experienced players sidelined through injury, and being unable to defend their opponents scoring heavily on the counter attack. But Walsh is determined to succeed using this method, and with a full complement of players to choose from, his team is comfortable playing his way, even a depleted Adelaide have not disgraced themselves.
The second half of the season presents Adelaide with a number of challenging assignments. If these challenges are met, they will cement themselves inside the eight, and will play finals footy in 2015. If they fail to meet them, they risk a more disappointing finish to the season. I suspect Adelaide have a point to prove, and won't go gently into the night. They can afford a few slip-ups and still make the finals, but they have room to improve, and deserve to be considered good enough to be finalists by the end of the season.
Brisbane Lions
Win/Loss record: 2-8
The acquisition of premiership players Dayne Beams and Allen Christensen was a turning point for the Brisbane Lions. The club, having lost a series of high draft picks for reasons we can only speculate, have seemingly become a desirable place to come and play footy. At least we thought so before they took to the field against Collingwood in Round 1. Collingwood, who were resoundingly beaten by the Brisbane Lions at the MCG late in 2014, were a different proposition this time around. Despite a late charge, Collingwood had dominated the match enough early to ensure themselves of the victory. Heavy defeats at the hands of North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast and Gold Coast followed, and the Lions were in crisis.
The Brisbane Lions would then put together a fortnight of footy the pundits predicted for them preseason. They came from behind to defeat Carlton by 9 points in Round 6, and then they shocked Port Adelaide in Round 7, a surprise 37 point victory, a snapshot of the Lions at top flight. But three weeks on, and a further three defeats, the Lions sit 2-8, a record they should have been good enough to avoid.
The Lions face a difficult month on the other side of their bye, with matches against the Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Fremantle and Sydney, only the Bulldogs currently sit outside the top eight, and they are potential finalists. Even if Brisbane fall to 2-12, their fixture gets easier towards the end, and they should still win six games before the season is over. At this stage, momentum going into 2016 is probably the most realistic goal.
Carlton
Win/Loss record: 1-9
For only the third time in their illustrious history, Carlton have started a season with just a single victory from their first ten matches. After some moderate success in 2013, in which they defeated arch rival Richmond in an Elimination Final, the club were left feeling disgruntled in 2014, finishing well outside the eight. Only seven matches to the plus last season. But even considering the events of 2014, nobody anticipated what has transpired in the opening ten rounds of 2015.
Since their last premiership in 1995 Carlton, arguably one of the greatest Australian football clubs of the twentieth century, have endured the most challenging twenty years in their history. The 2002 season saw the club finish last for the first time ever, a blight on an otherwise glorious list of club achievements. The succeeding years wouldn’t be much kinder to Carlton. Two more "wooden spoons" would follow in 2005 and 2006, before the club could contend for the finals once again. The club returned to the finals in 2009, the first of four times in five years, but never made it past second weekend. A series of poor decisions at board level, including the sackings of Brett Ratten and Michael Malthouse as coaches, and a number of miscalculations at the draft table have led the football club to where it is today.
Aside from Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs, and Chris Judd (who sadly announced his retirement during the past week), who are the Carlton players who can hold their heads high? I think Kade Simpson has been outstanding, amassing at least 21 disposals in each of his eight matches in 2015. Patrick Cripps is an emerging superstar, a tall midfielder, who excels at clearance work. Cameron Wood has become a reliable ruckman. Sam Docherty, Sam Rowe, Tom Bell, Andrejs Everitt, Ed Curnow and Zach Tuohy have all played for the Old Dark Navy Blue jumper but none have consistently been among the league's best.
Optimistically, Carlton can win enough matches to avoid a fourth "wooden spoon". An assessment of their season probably sees them sitting just above Gold Coast. An improved performance against Adelaide last weekend suggests their fortunes, under interim coach John Barker, could be about to change. A couple of games though is not enough to be sure. I think Carlton might win four or five games by the end of the season.
Hawthorn
Win/Loss record: 6-4
For the first time in 2015, Hawthorn won back-to-back matches in rounds nine and ten. The club may be feeling the after effects of having won the last two premierships. The Hawks have inexplicably lost a number of games this season that would have been formalities in recent seasons. But despite their 6-4 record, the Hawks have the best percentage in the competition: 155.2. To put that into context, their average winning margin in 2015 has been 69 points, while they’ve lost their four matches by an average of only 6 points.
The club seem to be just as ruthless as they’ve ever been when belting Geelong by 62 points on Easter Monday, or the new and improved Bulldogs model by 70 points, or last season’s Preliminary Finalists, North Melbourne, by ten goals. They were uncharacteristically overran by Essendon, and they handed Port Adelaide a massive early lead that they couldn’t come back from. Even the GWS Giants were victorious when the two sides met a month ago. Consistency hasn't been their forte thus far. There are teams ahead of Hawthorn in the premiership race in 2015, but that could change quickly if they put together a few wins without defeat. When the club returns from the bye, they play Adelaide, in a Thursday night blockbuster at Adelaide Oval, a match that may prove to be too difficult for the Hawks to win. On the other hand, the bye might have come at the perfect time for the club, perhaps using the week off to unite themselves ahead of the second half of the year. We've seen how good Hawthorn are when they’re at the peak of their powers. Despite having lost more games than we thought they might have at this point, I don’t think we’re deep enough into the season to know for sure whether or not the club is experiencing some kind of premiership hangover just yet. It's also too early to say if their veterans have past their career peaks
Hawthorn are not going to miss the finals, but how high they go will be determined by just how willing they are to win every week. As back-to-back reigning premiers, it must be challenging to care about winning each and every week, the GWS match is a prime example, Has the burning desire to win week after week diminished somewhat after dominating for so long? It’s difficult to look ahead and specify which matches the Hawks are likely to lose. It remains possible they will win 16 or 17 games, but I think a more conservative estimate of 14 wins might be more accurate this year.
Richmond
Win/Loss record: 6-4
In 2014, Richmond became the first team in history to reach the finals after having started a season 3-10. Last year provided the club with an opportunity to make the finals for the third consecutive year, the first time they would have achieved this since 1971 to 1975. After some early setbacks, Richmond have completed a superb month of football, defeating long-time rivals Collingwood and Essendon in blockbusters at the MCG, and beating interstate powerhouses Port Adelaide and Fremantle, both on the road.
Richmond have dramatically altered the way in which they move the ball over the last month, and it is in stark contrast to the way most clubs like to play. Most coaches will tell you the best way to play in the "press football" era is to move the ball quickly, with purpose, before the opposition can push players into their defensive half of the ground. However, Richmond were already playing that way, and for one reason or another, it hadn’t worked. Coach Damien Hardwick implemented a new strategy over the past month whereby his players slow the ball down, and take their time making decisions when they have possession of the ball. Richmond only "play on" after taking a mark 17% of the time across the last four matches, the least of any team during that time frame.
In the past, teams had been criticized for playing this way, but the club has seemingly brought it back into vogue. Perhaps it is just part of the natural evolution of the game. Richmond are also averaging less inside 50 entries than their opponents across the last four weeks, after having averaged significantly more in the opening six weeks. They are far more efficient than they were at the beginning of the year.
Richmond have won 15 of their past 20 matches dating back to Round 15 last year. It’s a run that only very good sides are usually capable of completing. Having already accounted for some of the best teams in the competition, the Tigers should be excited by the challenges ahead. Given their current run of form, they should make the finals for a third consecutive year. The club seems to be entering an era of success, and they won't accept anything less than finals, as the bare minimum. The Tigers haven’t won a final since 2001, however I think they might break through and win one in 2015.
Western Bulldogs
Win/Loss record: 5-5
The Western Bulldogs have fallen off the pace they set for themselves early in the season, but a deeper analysis of their season tells a different story. The Bulldogs have won five matches to this point of the season, against West Coast, Richmond, Adelaide, Sydney and GWS Giants, all sides who currently reside in the top eight. The Bulldogs have been plagued by inconsistencies, unable to beat St Kilda or Melbourne, two teams who sit in the bottom five as the ladder currently stands. This may be an indicator of their youth.
Coach Luke Beveridge, appointed at the close of 2014, took the club and made a number of changes to the way they were playing. The most important of these changes was a focus on forward pressure. The move has seen the club have unprecedented numbers of tackles in the forward part of the ground. Restricting the ability of the opposition to launch the ball from half back has become a hallmark of the team in 2015, was a contributing factor in many of their impressive victories.
The Western Bulldogs have a string of matches they will expect to win when they return from the bye. They face the Brisbane Lions, St Kilda, and Carlton with a match against Gold Coast in Cairns. Win them all and they set themselves right up for the finals. Drop one or more of these matches, and the task of reaching the finals becomes much harder. The Dogs are playing a terrific brand of footy, becoming one of the most watchable teams in the league. As the season progresses, the Bulldogs may tire since the style of footy they play is physically demanding. Therefore they might not be capable of playing the season out to the same standard. The next four matches are crucial for the club. The finish to the season includes a far more difficult run of matches. My hunch tells me the win total will fall short and they won't make the finals. They’re undoubtedly good enough, but there are many factors at play. Unless they maintain their extraordinary fitness level and unwavering commitment to the game, they will find the going increasingly tougher.
Add your analysis in the comments below and read the next two parts to this series. Go to Part 2 Go to Part 3
(Ed: note: Our newest contributor, Lachlan Hellyer, will be reviewing the Aussie rules season thus far in a three part series over the "bye rounds" of 11, 12, and 13. He will take a look at the progress each team has made to the midway point of the season. This week, six teams: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Hawthorn, Richmond,and Western Bulldogs, enjoy a week off. This is their season so far.)
Adelaide
Win/Loss record: 6-4
Phil Walsh promised an uncompromising style of football would be non-negotiable upon his appointment as coach. When he masterminded a brilliant 77 point victory against North Melbourne in Round 1, and backed it up in emphatic fashion against Collingwood the following week, he was hailed as a tactical genius. Adelaide were playing unstoppable football, but his team hasn’t reached the same heights in the ensuing weeks, and for one reason or another, Walsh’s legendary 18-man press has failed more often than it has succeeded.
As an assistant coach at Port Adelaide, Walsh was credited with plotting the great Brisbane Lions’ downfall in the 2004 Grand Final, a team who had won each of the previous three premierships. In 2011, this time an assistant with West Coast, Phil Walsh was credited with developing the game plan that saw them rise from last in 2010 to Preliminary Finalists in 2011. The basis of his strategy was the implementation of the full ground 18-man press, a system that requires all players on the team to push up the ground and lock the ball in their own attacking half, essentially turning all players into defenders when they don’t have the ball in their hands.
Collingwood, under legendary coach Michael Malthouse, had perfected the forward press by 2010. Both Hawthorn under Alastair Clarkson and St Kilda under Ross Lyon had begun experimenting with early versions of the press in the preceding few years, Hawthorn won a premiership doing it in 2008, and St Kilda fell agonizingly shy of Geelong in 2009, so coaches immediately tried to emulate it. It was Geelong under coach Chris Scott in 2011 that formulated the game plan that brought about an end to the forward press as the dominant coaching strategy in the game, if only for a short time.
Adelaide, at 6-4, are well placed to reach the finals in 2015. A series of injuries to key personnel has made the demands of Phil Walsh’s game style on his available players harder to reach week after week, often able to hold the ball inside their attacking half of the ground, but lacking the quality of some of their experienced players sidelined through injury, and being unable to defend their opponents scoring heavily on the counter attack. But Walsh is determined to succeed using this method, and with a full complement of players to choose from, his team is comfortable playing his way, even a depleted Adelaide have not disgraced themselves.
The second half of the season presents Adelaide with a number of challenging assignments. If these challenges are met, they will cement themselves inside the eight, and will play finals footy in 2015. If they fail to meet them, they risk a more disappointing finish to the season. I suspect Adelaide have a point to prove, and won't go gently into the night. They can afford a few slip-ups and still make the finals, but they have room to improve, and deserve to be considered good enough to be finalists by the end of the season.
Brisbane Lions
Win/Loss record: 2-8
The acquisition of premiership players Dayne Beams and Allen Christensen was a turning point for the Brisbane Lions. The club, having lost a series of high draft picks for reasons we can only speculate, have seemingly become a desirable place to come and play footy. At least we thought so before they took to the field against Collingwood in Round 1. Collingwood, who were resoundingly beaten by the Brisbane Lions at the MCG late in 2014, were a different proposition this time around. Despite a late charge, Collingwood had dominated the match enough early to ensure themselves of the victory. Heavy defeats at the hands of North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast and Gold Coast followed, and the Lions were in crisis.
The Brisbane Lions would then put together a fortnight of footy the pundits predicted for them preseason. They came from behind to defeat Carlton by 9 points in Round 6, and then they shocked Port Adelaide in Round 7, a surprise 37 point victory, a snapshot of the Lions at top flight. But three weeks on, and a further three defeats, the Lions sit 2-8, a record they should have been good enough to avoid.
The Lions face a difficult month on the other side of their bye, with matches against the Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Fremantle and Sydney, only the Bulldogs currently sit outside the top eight, and they are potential finalists. Even if Brisbane fall to 2-12, their fixture gets easier towards the end, and they should still win six games before the season is over. At this stage, momentum going into 2016 is probably the most realistic goal.
Carlton
Win/Loss record: 1-9
For only the third time in their illustrious history, Carlton have started a season with just a single victory from their first ten matches. After some moderate success in 2013, in which they defeated arch rival Richmond in an Elimination Final, the club were left feeling disgruntled in 2014, finishing well outside the eight. Only seven matches to the plus last season. But even considering the events of 2014, nobody anticipated what has transpired in the opening ten rounds of 2015.
Since their last premiership in 1995 Carlton, arguably one of the greatest Australian football clubs of the twentieth century, have endured the most challenging twenty years in their history. The 2002 season saw the club finish last for the first time ever, a blight on an otherwise glorious list of club achievements. The succeeding years wouldn’t be much kinder to Carlton. Two more "wooden spoons" would follow in 2005 and 2006, before the club could contend for the finals once again. The club returned to the finals in 2009, the first of four times in five years, but never made it past second weekend. A series of poor decisions at board level, including the sackings of Brett Ratten and Michael Malthouse as coaches, and a number of miscalculations at the draft table have led the football club to where it is today.
Aside from Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs, and Chris Judd (who sadly announced his retirement during the past week), who are the Carlton players who can hold their heads high? I think Kade Simpson has been outstanding, amassing at least 21 disposals in each of his eight matches in 2015. Patrick Cripps is an emerging superstar, a tall midfielder, who excels at clearance work. Cameron Wood has become a reliable ruckman. Sam Docherty, Sam Rowe, Tom Bell, Andrejs Everitt, Ed Curnow and Zach Tuohy have all played for the Old Dark Navy Blue jumper but none have consistently been among the league's best.
Optimistically, Carlton can win enough matches to avoid a fourth "wooden spoon". An assessment of their season probably sees them sitting just above Gold Coast. An improved performance against Adelaide last weekend suggests their fortunes, under interim coach John Barker, could be about to change. A couple of games though is not enough to be sure. I think Carlton might win four or five games by the end of the season.
Hawthorn
Win/Loss record: 6-4
For the first time in 2015, Hawthorn won back-to-back matches in rounds nine and ten. The club may be feeling the after effects of having won the last two premierships. The Hawks have inexplicably lost a number of games this season that would have been formalities in recent seasons. But despite their 6-4 record, the Hawks have the best percentage in the competition: 155.2. To put that into context, their average winning margin in 2015 has been 69 points, while they’ve lost their four matches by an average of only 6 points.
The club seem to be just as ruthless as they’ve ever been when belting Geelong by 62 points on Easter Monday, or the new and improved Bulldogs model by 70 points, or last season’s Preliminary Finalists, North Melbourne, by ten goals. They were uncharacteristically overran by Essendon, and they handed Port Adelaide a massive early lead that they couldn’t come back from. Even the GWS Giants were victorious when the two sides met a month ago. Consistency hasn't been their forte thus far. There are teams ahead of Hawthorn in the premiership race in 2015, but that could change quickly if they put together a few wins without defeat. When the club returns from the bye, they play Adelaide, in a Thursday night blockbuster at Adelaide Oval, a match that may prove to be too difficult for the Hawks to win. On the other hand, the bye might have come at the perfect time for the club, perhaps using the week off to unite themselves ahead of the second half of the year. We've seen how good Hawthorn are when they’re at the peak of their powers. Despite having lost more games than we thought they might have at this point, I don’t think we’re deep enough into the season to know for sure whether or not the club is experiencing some kind of premiership hangover just yet. It's also too early to say if their veterans have past their career peaks
Hawthorn are not going to miss the finals, but how high they go will be determined by just how willing they are to win every week. As back-to-back reigning premiers, it must be challenging to care about winning each and every week, the GWS match is a prime example, Has the burning desire to win week after week diminished somewhat after dominating for so long? It’s difficult to look ahead and specify which matches the Hawks are likely to lose. It remains possible they will win 16 or 17 games, but I think a more conservative estimate of 14 wins might be more accurate this year.
Richmond
Win/Loss record: 6-4
In 2014, Richmond became the first team in history to reach the finals after having started a season 3-10. Last year provided the club with an opportunity to make the finals for the third consecutive year, the first time they would have achieved this since 1971 to 1975. After some early setbacks, Richmond have completed a superb month of football, defeating long-time rivals Collingwood and Essendon in blockbusters at the MCG, and beating interstate powerhouses Port Adelaide and Fremantle, both on the road.
Richmond have dramatically altered the way in which they move the ball over the last month, and it is in stark contrast to the way most clubs like to play. Most coaches will tell you the best way to play in the "press football" era is to move the ball quickly, with purpose, before the opposition can push players into their defensive half of the ground. However, Richmond were already playing that way, and for one reason or another, it hadn’t worked. Coach Damien Hardwick implemented a new strategy over the past month whereby his players slow the ball down, and take their time making decisions when they have possession of the ball. Richmond only "play on" after taking a mark 17% of the time across the last four matches, the least of any team during that time frame.
In the past, teams had been criticized for playing this way, but the club has seemingly brought it back into vogue. Perhaps it is just part of the natural evolution of the game. Richmond are also averaging less inside 50 entries than their opponents across the last four weeks, after having averaged significantly more in the opening six weeks. They are far more efficient than they were at the beginning of the year.
Richmond have won 15 of their past 20 matches dating back to Round 15 last year. It’s a run that only very good sides are usually capable of completing. Having already accounted for some of the best teams in the competition, the Tigers should be excited by the challenges ahead. Given their current run of form, they should make the finals for a third consecutive year. The club seems to be entering an era of success, and they won't accept anything less than finals, as the bare minimum. The Tigers haven’t won a final since 2001, however I think they might break through and win one in 2015.
Western Bulldogs
Win/Loss record: 5-5
The Western Bulldogs have fallen off the pace they set for themselves early in the season, but a deeper analysis of their season tells a different story. The Bulldogs have won five matches to this point of the season, against West Coast, Richmond, Adelaide, Sydney and GWS Giants, all sides who currently reside in the top eight. The Bulldogs have been plagued by inconsistencies, unable to beat St Kilda or Melbourne, two teams who sit in the bottom five as the ladder currently stands. This may be an indicator of their youth.
Coach Luke Beveridge, appointed at the close of 2014, took the club and made a number of changes to the way they were playing. The most important of these changes was a focus on forward pressure. The move has seen the club have unprecedented numbers of tackles in the forward part of the ground. Restricting the ability of the opposition to launch the ball from half back has become a hallmark of the team in 2015, was a contributing factor in many of their impressive victories.
The Western Bulldogs have a string of matches they will expect to win when they return from the bye. They face the Brisbane Lions, St Kilda, and Carlton with a match against Gold Coast in Cairns. Win them all and they set themselves right up for the finals. Drop one or more of these matches, and the task of reaching the finals becomes much harder. The Dogs are playing a terrific brand of footy, becoming one of the most watchable teams in the league. As the season progresses, the Bulldogs may tire since the style of footy they play is physically demanding. Therefore they might not be capable of playing the season out to the same standard. The next four matches are crucial for the club. The finish to the season includes a far more difficult run of matches. My hunch tells me the win total will fall short and they won't make the finals. They’re undoubtedly good enough, but there are many factors at play. Unless they maintain their extraordinary fitness level and unwavering commitment to the game, they will find the going increasingly tougher.
Add your analysis in the comments below and read the next two parts to this series. Go to Part 2 Go to Part 3
Article last changed on Sunday, June 28, 2015 - 12:06 PM EDT
