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I am an active Footy tipper on the AFL.com.au site.  No money involved.  Nothing changes hands, just a set of acquaintances trying to achieve the glorious 8-0 week.  This year there have been precious few.  And unlike past years, there have been a lot of 6-2,4-4 and 5-3 tipping results.  I can only think of two 8-0 picks, this year (after 14 rounds) and only a handfull of 7-1 picks.

  This week  (Round 14) I won both tipping competions (I joined a second comp this year) with a 5-3 selection! Unheard of, and only because I picked the correct Friday night winner hence had the smallest point spread from the actual score.  There were four of us with 5-3, two with 4-4 (including the competition leader), and 2 with 3-5 (which probably means they did not enter their picks).  I'm the only American in these comps the others are Aussies and my son who has lived in Sydney since September 2000.

  So I ask myself why is it so hard this year?  I think it is because the traditionally 'loser teams' have definitely improved and any team can (and has) beat any other team.  (Remember the Dockers losing to the Cats by 1 point earlier this year, and they could have won had their last kick with 30 seconds remaining been a goal and not a behind.)

  The Footy League is near parity.  Ok, we have 3 run-aways and two bottom feeders, but when the other 11 teams play one another it is a real cr*p shoot as to who will win.  A brief look at the standings shows that there are 6 teams within 6 points (a game and a half) of one another Collingwood, Adelaide, Brisbane, St Kilda, Carlton, and North Melbourne.  With Richmond and Essendon only 2 tams out of the top 8.  The ones that always trip me up this year are Port and Fremantle, both of whom, require their opponent to play hard to win.

  What prompted me to write this comment?  Well, I've been looking at Round 15 and trying to decide who to Tip.  At the top of the list is Carlton and St. Kilda.  Both are 7-7, percentages are within 2 percentage points, and even though Carlton is deemed the 'home team', all of us reading this know they are both from Melbourne and hence there is no real home field advantage.  The only discriminator is that St. Kilda has won the past 8 games.  But, with this year, does that matter?

  Once I figure out who I will be tipping for Round 15, I'll share my thoughts and rationale.  Anyone got a quarter to flip?

Howard of Virginia


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