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In the following article in the Herald Sun, AFL CEO Andrew Demetriou defends the AFL's case for a 2nd team in Sydney:  Two into Sydney a nice fit  I read this with some interest and a couple of the numbers he uses caught my eye:  He makes the interesting argument that the one team in Sydney is equivalent to 1 player for every 159,000 residents while the same number for Melbourne is just 1 per 11, 000.   Hmm, well let's see what that really tells us.

Let's calculate the same numbers for Perth and for Chicago, Illinois, USA.   For Perth, with 2 AFL clubs, it's about 1 per 35,000.   And if we use the NFL Chicago Bears as the equivalent, we get one Bear player for every 63,000 residents.  Interestingly, a second Sydney team brings that ratio down to 1 per 80,000.  Conclusion:  no matter how you slice it, it's not just how many players are out there as evangelists for the game (in fact, if you consider how many ex AFL players are in Melbourne the place is running over with AFL players and every resident must know a handful or be related to them!), it's really telling us that Melbourne has too many football clubs not that Sydney has too few and two has to be the upper limit for Sydney. 

In reality, a more accurate comparison is the number of major sporting clubs per thousand residents for each metropolitan area.  To get that number you have to include all the NRL clubs in Australia and all the major sports in the USA (football, basketball, baseball, hockey, and for good measure soccer).   When you do those numbers, you get a completely different conclusion.  Sydney (by his count) has 17 major sports clubs and Melbourne has 12.  I figure Chicago has 6 and Perth has just 2.  Now look at the numbers:  Sydney: 1 per 206,000; Melbourne: 1 per 242,000; Chicago: 1 per 472,000; and Perth: 1 per 777,000.

So, putting a second club into Sydney hardly seems viable and keeping the ones in Melbourne even less so.  If the number of supporters available to the sport bears any relation whatsoever to population size, then a third Perth team would be a better option, and further an expansion into the US market would be even more tempting! (Travel and time issues notwithstanding!). (Note to readers:  no, I am not serious about the AFL putting a club in Chicago... it's humor!)


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