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AFL Preview Round 13 Season 2006

Last Week: 2 from 8 – Total 62/96 (64.6%)

For all those tipsters who followed the assumed wisdom of the previewer last round I apologise. I have gained some comfort from the fact that at least those who followed my tips last round also joined me with only 2 correct, an all time low record for me. There were some very ordinary form reversals amongst some poor performances by more fancied teams and they all worked towards creating some very interesting tipping scores. Never mind, another 10 rounds to go. If you’re more than 10 points in arrears check your comp rules to see what you have to do to win a booby prize if one is available.

There are those non-believers out there who thought the AFL played into the hands of all other football codes by taking a break when the world cup soccer was in progress as well as a Rugby international or two. And what a great two weeks it was for the Aussie Socceroos. They finished in the last 16 beaten by a poor decision, a story we AFL followers can certainly relate to as we tend to say that during almost every game we watch when supporting our team. There were times when watching the great game from Europe that the foot skills of many teams were somewhat inferior to acting skills and that may be a reason why these players are paid so much. Any idea how much some of these Hollywood actors get for playing a part in a movie? Soccer has it’s equivalents I tell you. All the drama aside I must admit that it was exciting watching your country playing and I for one did not watch any other game and will probably not watch another game for about 4 more years because if you have no interest in either team then the game is really as boring as all get out. The Aussie fans were the greatest especially when they take the pi##.

Okay, back to the footy, the real footy, where handball is an art form not a penalty.

Crows looking good as we enter the latter part of the season, West Coast staggering a bit but Judd’s back so they might steady, the Pies go back to being the best performed Victorian based team, the Bullies continue their roll happy in the knowledge that they have only 28 players left who can sustain a season-ending knee injury, Melbourne getting stronger, Swans experiencing a little hiccup but will be there at the end, the Saints hoping to finish in the 8 but that’s not a sure thing, the Power getting a bit of a run on and they just might qualify for the finals, Fremantle under the pump along with the coach and about 6 of their better players, the Tigers licking their wounds after a mauling by the lowly Hawks, the Cats on the comeback trail if they can just believe their own press, the Hawks celebrating the appointment of the coach for an extended stay in the normal manner for cellar dwellers – winning a game unexpectedly, the Lions keep finding thorns in their paws, sometimes the opposition sometimes Akermanis, the Kangaroos holding their heads high after beating Carlton which most other sides can do, Carlton at least beating Essendon and Fevola getting good press AND leading the goalkicking and last, and least, the Bombers who will have to perform a Sheedy miracle to lose the Wooden Spoon but as they are playing for priority draft picks it’s rather academic.

Form reversals and team mental attitudes need to be at the forefront of your minds as we take our picks this week. Good luck.

Kangaroos V Essendon – Telstra Dome Friday Night

All things being equal there is a chance of Essendon actually winning this game. A slim chance and therefore not one I am about to entertain. Too many players missing from the Bomber line-up and as many out of form will make it hard if not impossible to imagine an Essendon win. The Kangaroos will not want to drop this game after struggling against the Blues last week before winning by about 21 points. I’m guessing that will be the minimum margin in this game as well.

Kangaroos by 33

Melbourne V Port Adelaide – MCG Saturday Arvo

I suppose after 4 wins on the trot – a feat not often achieved this season outside the top 2 teams the Power probably give themselves a chance against the Demons even at the MCG. I don’t.

Melbourne by 25

St Kilda V Hawthorn – Telstra Dome Saturday Arvo

Hmmm, a difficult choice here. Before the game against the Tigers last week I had made up my mind to give the Hawks a miss for the rest of the season but now, with St Kilda’s injury list looking like the who’s who of football you wouldn’t be an idiot picking Hawthorn to win. Crawford, Croad, Everitt and Van Den Berg are all back for the Hawks while the Saints are without Harvey, Hayes, Hamill, Thompson, Blake and Koschitzke. Unfortunately I’m not confident Hawthorn can win but after the 2 points in tipping last week I need to make up a bit of ground.

Hawthorn by 17

Brisbane V Carlton – Gabba Saturday night

I refuse point blank to pick Carlton to win and with their record so far that tactic has been favourable. But I will admit that with Jonathon Brown out for another week with a hip injury and Akermanis bringing the game into disrepute with too many handstands after games along with a few other injuries there is a silly chance that Carlton could steal the points. Silly is the operative word here. Michael is back for the Lions to hopefully hold the Fev to a couple of goals and Brisbane still has a bit of talent around the ground. It won’t be easy but I’m going for the home team as a percentage bet.

Brisbane lions by 11

Sydney V Fremantle – SCG Sunday

It’s a shame the game isn’t on American Independence day because it would be good for the Freo coach to be able to buy some fireworks to stick up his players’ clackers at this pointy stage of the season. Another season at Fremantle and we have the same problems. The Dockers are travelling to Sydney to play last year’s premiers, they have just suffered a 10 goal defeat at home by none other than Geelong a team that is living in a dream, Connolly is coming out with the same drivel and you expect me to recommend a Freo win? Nah. I have a funny version of a Docker’s membership form. If you email me I will send you a copy.

Sydney by 33

Adelaide V Geelong – AAMI Stadium Sunday

A relentless Crows backline and a nervous Geelong forward line. It could get ugly. I know the Cats have strung together two wins in a row with one of those against the bottom team Essendon and a good win in Perth against the Dockers. Meanwhile the Adelaide machine keeps rolling along with 4 wins in a row and them sitting on top of the ladder. I’m not one to write Geelong off but every tipster must agree that it will be difficult if not impossible. I’ll opt for improbable anyway.

Adelaide by 22

Richmond V Collingwood – MCG Sunday Arvo

Just how badly will Collingwood have to play to lose this game? Exactly which tactic will Wallace adopt to help his Tigers win the game? Will Richo be back for the Tigers this week? Does Richmond have enough in defence to counter Rocca, Tarrant, Didak, Davis, Fraser and Buckley? These questions and many others will be answered by 5.00pm EST Sunday if you want to wait. I’ll give you the answer now.

Collingwood by 29

West Coast V Bulldogs – Subiaco Sunday

Second versus fourth and the Doggies playing a little better than the Eagles if you don’t count West Coast’s one and a half quarter efforts. However, the Eagles certainly received a touch up from the Power last week and played poorly. A big plus for the Eagles apart from the fact that the game is at Subiaco is undoubtedly the return of Judd. There is also talk about the inclusion of Gardiner, the West Coast bad boy, at the expense of probably Seaby. Although the Eagles have a strong midfield they also have to contend with Bulldogs match winners up forward in Johnson and Grant. Cooney, West, Farren Ray, possibly Giansiracusa are all good foils against Cousins, Kerr, Embley and Fletcher. Be it Seaby or Gardiner, with Cox the Eagles will have ruck ascendancy around the ground. The forecast is for 22 degrees, a fine, cloudy day, so it should be a great game and I should be back from golf in time to watch. Have to stay with the home team.

West Coast by 17

Article last changed on Saturday, July 08, 2006 - 5:53 PM EDT


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