AFL Weekly Preview Round 19 2006

AFL Preview Round 19 Season 2006

Last Week: 5 from 8 – Total 94/144 (65.3%)

After the West Coast game on Friday night I bet you all thought I was a legend tipster. West Coast to win by 39 points amen. Things became a little more difficult after that but apart from the stupidity of the Essendon pick (a selection influenced by the MUG PUNTER) me, and every other tipster, should have tipped 6 – 7 correct. Unfortunately our tipping comp leader did just that so his lead has been extended and with 4 rounds to go any lead over 4 points will be difficult to peg back. There were not many out there who picked the Blues to beat the Dees and assuredly that would have been a better one to put the $100 on than the Bomber fiasco. Mug punter indeed!!

The season is getting very interesting for some of the teams in the 8, particularly the lower 6. The question on everyone’s lips, well those that live south of the river in Perth anyway, is: Can the Dockers self destruct between now and round 22 and drop out of the 8 to let the Cats in? Fremantle have some difficult assignments starting with Adelaide, a weakened Adelaide I might add, this weekend at AAMI. Geelong don’t have it any easier in their match with the Saints either. And just to add to the mix we have the Demons up against Sydney which gives us 4 of the top 8 playing each other.

In AFL news we see Mick Malthouse denying rumours of being too sick to continue coaching next year but we’ll see just how much his health improves as Collingwood progress, or otherwise, through the finals. An early departure by the Pies in September will see Eddie Everywhere feeling pretty crook as well.

There are a few tough picks this week tipsters so get the imagination going and place yourselves in the dressing rooms of the teams during the week to figure out just which team is mentally tuned enough to beat the opposition. Good luck.

Essendon V Collingwood – MCG Friday Night

A couple of handy players lost to the Pies in Davis and Thomas with long term injuries and this robs them of a bit of pace around the ground but the lucky break is they play the Bombers whose injury list is as long as your arm. Sheedy describes the Bombers’ season as ‘annus horribilus’ which sounds all Greek to me although I did hear Her Majesty Liz use the term some years ago and as she is married to a Greek that explains it. Mick’s reflux and Sheedy’s quirks aside and despite their mutual admiration for each other the game will be hotly contested as usual and the Pies need to take this opportunity when playing the BOTTOM team to consolidate their ladder position with a good win. I hope I didn’t have my money on the Bombers in the wrong week. Think not.

Collingwood by 33

Melbourne V Sydney Swans - MCG Saturday

This is certainly one of the games of the round with 3rd playing 4th and form wise the Swans are showing some good pieces of it at the right end of the season while the Demons seem to have the staggers a bit. Fancy letting Carlton beat you not once but twice during a season in which the Blues are fighting to not win the wooden spoon! The game is an opportunity for Sydney to show us just where they are this year in relation to the top two teams and it looks as though they have thrown off that premiership lethargy apparent earlier in the year. The Dees have the talent and a home ground advantage but I’m betting on Roos’ boys to do the consolidating at the expense of Melbourne thus further denting the hopes of Victorians wanting the premiership cup to return to the promised land.

Sydney by 11

West Coast V Kangaroos – Subiaco Saturday

The Kangaroos have looked at the draw and said: Crikey Perth! That’s a long way to go for a game of footy we’re going to lose anyway. Hands up all of those players injured and who have private medical insurance. Okay, you guys go see your doctor and arrange your ops, the rest of you pack your PJ’s, footy boots are optional this week, and board the plane on Thursday for Perth and sunny weather!! Don’t worry about the nightclubs guys, Perth doesn’t have any that stay open late.

West Coast by 69

Richmond V Brisbane – Telstra Dome Saturday Night

A good article this week about Michael Voss and the possibility that this will be his last season. What a great footballer he has been. Tough and fair. They say the Telstra ground is so hard that players’ careers are being affected and Voss will not play in this game so he can last out the season. Hmmm, that certainly needs investigation. Apart from all that we have two teams who have been middle of the road all season so picking the winner in this one will not be easy. Over possessing Tigers against the toothless Lions. The game should be close but holds little interest with respect to the finals as neither team will be there in September. As much as I would like to adopt a ‘don’t care’ attitude we need to sneak a point here and I’m going to have to go for Richmond to get back on the winning track. They challenged the Bulldogs last week a few times after being almost blitzed at the start so they should hold off a rather depleted Brisbane long enough to gain the 4 points – I hope.

Richmond by 10

Western Bulldogs V Port Adelaide – Marrara Saturday night

A well travelled side are the Bulldogs as they jet off to Darwin this weekend to take on a sick looking Port Adelaide. Mind you, had Motlop kicked truly a couple of weeks ago the Power would have beaten St Kilda so they are a chance against the Bullies if given the opportunity and the Bulldogs are still struggling with heaps of injuries. A hot tropical night in Darwin may test their resolve as well. But they have a lot to play for and with 11 wins the Western Bulldogs are in the ruck of the 8 along with 5 other teams so wins against the probable weaker sides are a must. Ask Melbourne and their coach Daniher. Rocket Eade knows that with games against Adelaide and St Kilda to come his brave Bullies must win this. Hopefully the motivation will be enough to get them over the line – just.

Western Bulldogs by 2

Adelaide V Fremantle – AAMI Stadium Sunday

If ever the Dockers needed a sign then the loss of Burton, Hart, Riccuito and McLeod must be a flashing neon one. On top of that the Crows are struggling a little in form and after a hard slog against the Pies last week they’re probably in for a tough one against Fremantle who have hit a purple patch (groan…sorry) with 5 wins in a row, unheard of in Freo land. The local rag here in the West is starting to talk top four and grand finals all of a sudden not 6 weeks after kicking coach Connolly while he and his team were down. Fickle sport at times this footy. I reckon the Dockers still make terrible mistakes resulting in costly turnovers at crucial times but I will admit it would be nice to see the underdog notch another win. Honestly though, I can see a Freo loss, a Geelong win and the prophets of doom will do the rest for the Dorks and another missed finals campaign. Well, it’s possible. The ulterior and very sneaky motive for the Crows to lose this is so the Eagles end the season on top of the ladder because as history showed last season finishing on top doesn’t get you the big prize anyway. For tipping points Freo is not a bad pick and you might need it should Melbourne get up against the Swans. This is a brave tip.

Fremantle by 11

Geelong V St Kilda – Telstra Dome Sunday

I love a season filled with drama and we will get that drama if the Cats can knock off the Saints and keep their hopes for a finals appearance alive. A Geelong win will also keep the pressure on the other 5 teams in the 8 that are all sitting on 11 wins. Thompson, the Geelong coach, is fighting for survival as well because he is in charge of a team who showed so much early in the year and gave so little for most of it and the fans won’t be happy. Rumours of infighting (catfights?) and sexual misbehaviour are other little fires that Geelong are working to douse and certainly doesn’t help their cause. For the Saints the sickening loss of Maguire with a broken leg last week doesn’t help their cause and the depth of the Saints list is being tested a little here. (Mind you Ablett is injured for the Cats as well.) There’s nothing better than watching two teams give it their best shot when they know they HAVE to win as that is the best of footy. Shame I’ll be out playing golf early in the morning and will miss the first half. It should be a close game and for us tipsters a difficult selection to make.

Geelong by 7

Hawthorn V Carlton – MCG Sunday

And just when you looked at the fixture and saw Carlton and were about to pencil in the other team you see that the other team is Hawthorn. Good grief it’s hard enough picking winners in meaningful, good games than have to try and do it again in meaningless, useless games. I will admit that the game against the Demons last week was watched by myself mainly due to the closeness of the scores I might add. The Hawks were poor last week against the Dockers. Overuse of the ball is a killer when your skills are second class. All you do is give the opposition the chance to pick up on the inevitable fumble and help them win the game. However, the opposition is Carlton who are also rather inexperienced and prone to fumbles at crucial times. You would have to think the game will be close. It’s a matter of which team will be ahead when the final siren goes, and that, by the way, is the secret of successful tipping which I have inadvertently just let out of the bag!! Coin flip. If the coin lands on it’s side it will be a draw!! Nope.

Carlton by 6