AFL Weekly Preview Round 21 2006

Last Week: 5 from 8 – Total 103/160 (64.4%)

Tipping last week, I admit, was tinged with a bit of panic when I committed the Hawks and the Bombers to a draw which at half time looked like it was going to be a 15 goal flogging but ended up just an 18 point win to Hawthorn. Had I stuck with the Hawks, whom I really thought would win, I would have managed 6 correct and gained one valuable point on the competition leader. With two rounds to go and 6 points in arrears (in our comp) there is little hope to win so I will concentrate on that second place. How did the rest of you go? There are a few jackpots in some of the tipping comps and there are some last place prizes. Hope you can score something to salvage the season. It looks like my best season of 125 correct will not be topped this year.

On a more serious note the news that Fox Footy is about to cash in their chips and cease football broadcasts is disastrous news to subscribers like me who had Fox put on for one reason only. The fight has already started with my cohabitant about getting rid of the service as she just loves Hallmark, movies, UK TV and a host of other useless non-sporting shows. Let’s hope calm heads rule both in the corporate telecommunications world and in the homes around Oz. Put that news on top of the fact that neither channel 7 nor channel 10 will be hiring Dennis Cometti to do the match calling and we have a distinct possibility for a change to….to….soccer?...well not soccer but perhaps rugby….alright not rugby but I’m sure there is a sport that one could watch and in which one could become involved, such as beach volley ball? Fingers crossed on this one.

Tipsters, there are a few curly choices again this round and add to that the end of the season and the need for some footballers to show a bit to ensure their future employment and we have a recipe for some upsets even this late in the fixtures. Again, good luck.

Here’s a tough one to start the weekend. I’m not sure whether it’s better to get the Friday night one right and sob all day Saturday as your tips bite the dust or to get the opener wrong and enjoy some success for the rest of the weekend. (This is Rule 8 of The Great Laws of Footy Tipping!) Either way this is a difficult game from which to pick a winner and both teams are at the bottom of the 8 pile. St Kilda were miserable last week against the Dockers and add to that the return flight to Perth, plus the Bulldogs’ form and you will be hard put to go away from picking the Bullies in what will probably be another close one. That reasoning is okay by me.

Western Bulldogs by 14

Interestingly the Sportsbet has the Cats as a slight favourite but Daniher will not want Melbourne losing this one as they could drop to as low as 7th on the ladder as a result. I don’t know what to make of Geelong this season and they have their wins and losses even at the moment to further underline their wishy washy season. At least Cameron Mooney has remained positive, positive that he will break the record for suspensions and tribunal appointments this year which means Geelong won’t have him this week. Anger management psychologists are beating a path to his door no doubt. Coach Thompson just keeps scratching his head – perplexed. The Dees were great in the second half against the Roos last week but the Cats were even better all game against a far better team in Sydney and the game is at Skilled. Who can beat the Cats on their day?  As some of us need an edge in the tips Geelong isn’t the worst choice for a bit of an upset.

Geelong by 11

Both teams have won the same number of games, their percentages are almost identical, they have both performed pretty well in most of their games and now we are supposed to pick a winner. How? If there was ever a reason to pick the draw again then this is it. These are definitely the toughest matches to pick and if one could be assured that the Hawks will play as well as they did in the first half last week against the Bombers then they will be the automatic win selection in this game. However, both teams have suffered with lack of consistency so the team that comes to win mentally will succeed. I just don’t know which team that is. Let’s stick with the home team.

Hawthorn by 1

Essendon are still in danger of winning the wooden spoon but will that be enough of an incentive to overcome a Tiger side that has been showing some promise, albeit against ordinary opposition, the past two weeks? By the way, do you win a wooden spoon or do you lose a wooden spoon? An interesting and debatable point and one I will leave to Essendon and Carlton supporters to discuss over a beer and some tears. Wallace would want his Richmond side to finish about 9th if possible this season which may give them hope for 2007 to improve. The Tigers have West Coast next week so that won’t be an easy task, but, as the experts say repeatedly every season: “One week at a time folks.” Essendon are good enough on their day to win this game it’s just that their day has come only 3 times this season and statistically speaking the odds are not good enough to pick them with any confidence. It’s another game that you will either pick up a point on the tipping leader or drop a point further back. I see the Bombers as a harder team than Richmond so……what the heck.

Essendon by 12

The Swans will be kicking themselves after last week’s effort against Geelong but when you see that they had not beaten Geelong at Skilled for some years it was a better option to pick the pussycats last week anyway. Brisbane gave a reasonable account of themselves last week against the competition leaders West Coast for…oh about 22 minutes so don’t expect a concerted effort against the reigning premiers who still look a real threat this year as well. Sydney can see a great opportunity looming here to get back in the top 4 and they certainly won’t be letting the Lions spoil that chance.

Sydney by 71

Weren’t we all saying a few weeks ago that it was difficult to see just who was going to challenge the Crows for the premiership this year? Hmmm, things have changed in the Adelaide camp and South Australians will be going to this game knowing that the Power has a chance to further upset the Crows applecart. It’s a long season and the players find it hard to stay at their peak physically and mentally and that has been shown to happen at the Eagles as well. It’s top teams that can suffer form loss and continue to win that puts the best teams apart from the better teams. The Power is rebuilding and have been unlucky to lose a few of the past close games including last week against Collingwood by 2 points. This is the South Australian derby but as we live in the west we haven’t been able to fit any other football news into our paper due to the local WA derby being played this weekend as well. As it doesn’t really matter whether the Crows win or lose as they stay in the top two regardless they will need to find some extra motivation. If Adelaide regain form they will win this easily. If not it will be a lot tougher but they will still win.

Adelaide by 20

It would be nice to pencil this in for the Magpies as an easy win but the last time they came up against the bottom team they lost. Déjà vu maybe but the chance is there again unless we can get Rocca and Tarrant performing and the Pies playing with the confidence and style they showed earlier in the season. Happy to finish in the 8 this season after a very poor 2005 which yielded just 5 wins I think the team and its goals have changed as the season unfolded and the Collingwood hierarchy are looking at a top 4 finish to give them a fighting chance to have a crack at the flag. When you look at their win against the Eagles, almost beating Adelaide and being as good as the other 5 teams in the 8 that ‘flag’ statement isn’t so ridiculous, even coming from a Collingwood supporter. Carlton have put together another disastrous season with consecutive wooden spoons looming, a very poor bank balance and an unhealthy need to retain their aging players. The only bright light for Carlton is the form of Fevola which has been brilliant and we would have to look at the history books to find the other occasion when a bottom team gave us the leading goalkicker for the season. As stated when Collingwood played the Bombers, they will need to be on their game. No form slumps, no easy missed goals, no petulant Anthony Rocca and we might be saved from witnessing any further dummy spitting and temper tantrums from the Magpie coaching box this Sunday.

Collingwood by 33

There has been so much written this week about the coming derby between these two teams that I feel that anything I might say here will be only repetitious. Yes it should be a great game. Yes Freo are trying for an unprecedented 8 wins in a row. Yes Connolly’s job is as secure as John Howard’s. Yes the players are looking forward to the game although it’s no different to any other game of the season. Yes it was sold out within 27 minutes of the tickets going on sale. Yes it will be a direct telecast. Yes the Dockers won’t win.

West Coast Eagles by 59