AFL Weekly Preview Round Nine 2007

 AFL SEASON 2007

PREVIEW ROUND 9

by John Loffler

(Last week 6 from 8 total 37 from 64 = 57.8%)

At last some consistency in the tipping preview and it’s a bit like a game of footy where a team needs to kick back to back goals and we’ve kicked back to back 6’s. Nice. Should have been 7 but for a minor brain implosion that made me pick the Blues.

So the AFL, well, at least Channel 10, is talking a Grand Final played in the evening. On the plus side is that the AFL Grand Final breakfasts can now be AFL Grand Final luncheons or the breakfasts can go on and on through the lunch time hence the double charge by the caterers and the football clubs. On the minus side of course is that you will be far too inebriated by the time the ball is bounced at 3.00pm to not only not be able to follow the game but also wonder why you’re sitting high up in a huge arena decked out in some hideously sick looking coloured clothing watching what looks like a group of similarly coloured insects playing a game about which you have no idea and nor does, obviously, the guys directing the game with whistles in their mouths. Worst of all is that by 5.00 pm you’re looking for a place to have your usual afternoon nap that you normally have at home around the same time after you have been sitting on your recliner sofa watching footy and sinking a couple of stubbies. And what about all those grand final parties we attend annually at some mate’s place? Instead of wending your way home at about 5.00 pm you’re going to have to stay the night and that’s after you’ve been there for some 7 hours already!! Also with a late start there would have been time in the morning to do the shopping? No sir, no late afternoon game for me. If that idea was to flourish I reckon start the game at the same time they do on a Friday night, about 5.40pm WST and make a planned party night of it all around Australia.

Well tipsters, we are but a few games off the half way mark of the season and there are still some curly decisions to make each round. The fight for the wooden spoon at least seems to be over somewhat early in the season with some pretty amazing form reversal needed for the Tigers to relinquish this dubious honour. There are 6 teams on 5 wins followed by 4 teams on 4 wins each so the ladder is a real log jam with a favourable result one week seeing your team in the top 8 and an unfavourable result seeing your team tumble to cellar dwellers another week. This round sees the selection process being particularly hard with about 5 difficult decisions needed to be made. Get 6 right this week and you’re a genius. Good luck!

Fremantle V St Kilda at Subiaco Friday Night

These two team make up for the majority of injury and suspension reports for the AFL. Ross Lyon also received some rather unflattering comments after the way in which the Saints played the game last week against the Hawks. Both teams were convicted of over flooding their back lines and a game that has only 5 goals kicked in total by half time are guilty of bringing the game into disrepute by making it look like soccer. By the way, I had to laugh at a sports commentator who said the game between Chelsea and Manchester United would be close. Good grief man! Every game of soccer is close. Is 2 – 1 a thrashing, or a nil all draw with penalties at 5 – 2 not close? Anyway, this game being played at Subi might be a bit wet if the weather report is right so that will make it harder to pick the winner. I think that Freo is a better team than the Saints this year and that should reflect on the scoreboard. Hopefully Matthew Pavlich can keep his concentration on the game rather than working out just how much Port Adelaide is prepared to pay him for changing teams next season.

Fremantle by 22

Carlton V Adelaide Telstra Dome Saturday Arvo

I don’t care whether the game was being played in the laneway behind Kouta’s house or on the Fev’s front lawn. I am NOT picking Carlton!!!

Adelaide by 44

Hawthorn V West Coast Eagles at Aurora Stadium Tassie Saturday Arvo

The Hawks are one of those teams sitting amidst a ladder log jam on 5 wins and in 5th place. It looks like nobody is more surprised than the coach and the supporters. I would strongly recommend that they don’t play the flooding game with the Eagles because that will be suicide. In fact, Hawthorn turning up may be construed as suicide. It’s hard to see teams that fall into the rebuilding average category beating the Eagles this year and even with the game at Aurora (which is Taswegian for ‘two heads’) and the possibility of the last quarter final siren not sounding until Monday late morning and Judd going on strike because he doesn’t have Ben helping him and now Kerr has opted out for the next two games as well because of a careless charging conviction against a Melbourne player who was probably happy that somebody other than Daniher was trying to knock some sense into his style of play (whew!) I can’t find a reason to pick the Hawks. So I won’t.

West Coast by 31

Brisbane Lions V Collingwood at the Gabba Saturday Night

The Pies will be happy to realise that the Lions won’t have Voss but they will have Jonathan Brown and it will be a big ask for James Clement to come back this week and try to hold him. The Pies are a bit light on in the ruck as well but then again that’s been the case since Thommo (Len Thompson folks) left them in about 1979. That Collingwood bubble burst last week against the Bulldogs and those hard fought winning ways came to a big stop after half time as Collingwood barely gave a squeak. It’s not only the weather that will be a bit hot for the Pies but the cauldron of the Gabba with its one-eyed Queensland supporters still frothing at the mouth from their state of origin win against NSW in that horrible other football game last night is not a happy hunting ground for many visiting teams. Two losses in a row have left Brisbane sitting about where everyone thought they might be this season and the rest of the Melbourne based football teams are hoping that Collingwood can keep them there. It’s doubtful that the Pies can rise to the challenge but worth the gamble.

Collingwood by 7

Richmond V Essendon at the MCG Saturday Night

The Bombers are another one of those teams caught in mid ladder at mid season and a win against the Tigers can keep them in touch with the top eight contenders. Now, as tipsters, we are ready to bet against the Tigers every week and although it’s well known that they will win one or two it’s going to be difficult to exactly pinpoint just which game or games that will be. Truly, this is one of those matches but if Hird, Lloyd, Lucas and Fletcher all play that’s about the same experience in total number of games as the whole Richmond team adds up to including coach Wallace and the recently fired Gaspar. It’s possible that the Tigers may win a close one but this season I’m prepared to bet against them every week and suffer the two tipping points wrong. Amen.

Essendon by 44

Western Bulldogs V Sydney at Manuka Sunday Arvo

This is definitely one of the games of the round and it’s to be played in a city where another big contest will take place between the two political parties later in the year where we poor tipsters will have to make as difficult a decision as we will about this footy game. Unlike the election contest though we can expect this match between the Bulldogs and the Swans to be a tad more exciting. And speaking of Tadhg, what an effort the Irishman made to get back from a knee injury in such short a time and to be a big influence for his team in last week’s game against the ladder leaders Port Adelaide. The result of the game will depend on the ability of Sydney to close down the Bulldog runners a strategy that Collingwood tried – unsuccessfully. Both teams have to travel so there is no home ground advantage here and is that because the AFL is trying to palm the Bulldogs off onto Canberra? I’m trying to picture the winning team in my mind but cannot. This one is a toss of the coin and I’m picking Sydney to bank on their experience of tough, tight games to achieve the win.

Sydney by 11

Melbourne V Kangaroos at MCG Sunday arvo

Gee, Melbourne was awful last week against the West Coast Eagles and it was goal front accuracy that flattered the final margin which was 70 plus points anyway. On the opposite side of the scale the Kangaroos are the highest scoring team in the AFL at the moment and are playing pretty good footy. It was quite a game against the Blues last week when they came from 28 points down at half time and won quite comfortably in the end even though Carlton kicked a formidable score themselves. The Demons seem to have lost their way and are heading for an ignominious record of their own by starting the season with a possible 0 – 9 win loss ratio to equal some obscure record of 1974 or thereabouts. Who remembers any of that…other than Demon supporters of course. Prior to the effort against the Eagles Melbourne were just beaten in two games so you wonder whether they can create something from last week’s loss and upset the flying Kangaroos. Here’s a game that tipsters look at with unqualified joy because with a touch of bravery they can catch up a point on the leaders. Be brave!!

Melbourne by 6

Port Adelaide V Geelong at AAMI Stadium Sunday Arvo

This brings us to the last game – another beauty with two teams who are going along just fine and dandy. The Cats are on a bit of a roll while the Power has surprised most experts with their ladder position at the moment. I stated last week that Port’s top of the ladder position would be short lived and Sydney saw to that prediction. Can they come back from that loss last week against a team that has knocked off two of the top four teams including the premiers in two consecutive games at their home ground and after a huge win against the Tigers at the ‘G’? I thought the Eagles played well below their best in the game against Geelong. I thought Geelong was lazy against the Dorks last week and given a bit of luck and a better decision by the umpire in a crucial free kick in the last quarter against McManus the game may have been stolen. I consider the Power a tougher team and at home in front of those one-eyed Port supporters I’m expecting the Adelaide team to win, much to my displeasure. If Geelong can win this one away from home against quality opposition then they are worthy contenders. I doubt it so get on the Port bandwagon tipsters and ensure your 8 correct this week.

Port Adelaide by 17