AFL Weekly Preview Round 12 2007

AFL SEASON 2007 --  PREVIEW ROUND 12

by John Loffler

SPLIT ROUND

(Last week 5 from 8 total 50 from 88 =56.8%)

The tipping continues to plod along with some pretty ordinary scores. It’s a comfort of sorts to know that the competition leader is still only a handful of points ahead so the opportunity to catch up is still there. Apart from Geelong, the Eagles and Richmond the rest of the teams are being difficult to pick with any consistency. I am running 24,247th out of 151,843 tippers in the AFL comp and that is pretty good in a backhanded sort of way.

The split round this week will enable the Eagles an extra week to get Ben Cousins ready for his 2007 AFL debut as soon as everyone can reach agreement to the conditions of his comeback. One can barely imagine the sledging this guy will be getting from opposition and enemy supporters when he runs out onto the field of play sometime this season. I hope he can take a crack – if you’ll pardon the pun!! Then we have the $10m offer to Barry Hall to take up boxing and drop AFL footy. Get out of the way Baz I’ll cop a punch in the nose just the once for that kind of money. I doubt whether Big Bad Barry could do it as he would never be able to get his head around punching somebody and not having a brightly dressed guy blow a whistle and take down his name in a little notebook that he can then tuck into his long running socks.

Well, we’re half way through the fixtures and I’ll take the opportunity to address some of the pre-season predictions made on teams by the experts and to some degree we tipsters who, looking at our scores, have been somewhat duped into believing what was said.

There are some tough picks in this round, as usual, and it would be nice to be on the winning selection in the close games for a change.

Carlton V Hawthorn at Telstra Dome Friday Night

After the Blues again won the pre-season grand final many thought they would be wooden spooners in 2007. But Pagan has Carlton playing some rather exciting football which is indicated in their recent scores as well as the fact that they are the second highest scoring team on the ladder while holding down 13th position. They come up against the other big season surprise in Hawthorn who sit 3rd on the ladder and are also playing attacking football. You wouldn’t have said it at the start of the season but this match could well be the best spectacle over the split round and we hope to see a high scoring game played in sublime, roofed Telstra Dome conditions. The Hawks look the real thing so far this season and it’s a matter of finding them a spot in the 8 with confidence. I suspect if they can maintain their current form and win 6 of the next 11 then 5th or 6th will be possible. Oh, I forgot to mention that although Carlton is the second highest in points scored for, they are also the highest in points scored against. The Blues won two in a row for the first time in 3 years, should they win a third we would have the Carlton supporters talking premierships and folks that would be too much to bear. It will be a race between Carlton and Brisbane for 14th on the ladder.

Hawthorn by 29

Kangaroos V Adelaide at Gold Coast Carrara Saturday

When the Kangas started the season 0 – 3 we committed them to ladder ignominy and possible wooden spooners along with the Blues. Laidley got his boys to then win 7 of their next 8 games and there’s no doubt most pundits now have them as possible finals contenders. This game is at Carrara where the Kangaroos haven’t dropped a game yet. I’m still not completely convinced the Kangaroos will make the top 8 but if they miss it won’t be for lack of trying. The season has a way to go and you would wonder whether this team can keep up this ferocious intensity for another 5 wins they’ll need to make the finals. The Crows were always touted as a finals proposition, maybe even premiership material. They are battling through injuries and if they can get their best players on the park as the season progresses they will be there, somewhere, in September. Lose this game and Adelaide will be 6-6, not a good springboard for making the top 4. You would expect this to be a close game and the doubt still remains with the Kangaroos against sides with real class. As a tipster we want these close ones to fall our way so I’ll take the Crows to put a dent in the Carrara dream.

Adelaide Crows by 3

Western Bulldogs V Fremantle at Darwin Saturday Night

Ahhh, if only the Bulldogs had taken up this season where they left off last year, apart from that finals appearance. We would have no doubts about what to do with this tip. It’s hard to work out where the Bulldogs will finish this year as they are running hot and cold – as are their opponents Fremantle. The Bullies have some injury concerns from last week’s game against the Lions but fortunately this only affects their midfield, an area in which Freo are so slow that the Bulldog injuries might not matter. The game is being played in Darwin so we have the added factor of energy sapping humidity and which team will acclimatise the better. Who will the Bulldogs put on Pavlich? Another game from him like last week and there is no doubt in my mind as to which team will win. Both teams will be desperate for the 4 points and trying to consolidate their ladder position but I am inclined to nudge my betting money over the counter towards the Dorks. For the season I’ll say that unless the Bulldogs can get back that consistency they will not make the finals this year. Fremantle showed last year what they can do and although I never imagined them to be preliminary finalists last year they have the goods in players and style to get their again this year. We just have to see more of it for this last half of the season. I’m still saying they will make the 8. This match should be another close game and so it’s another flip of the coin. Heads it’s…….

Fremantle by 23

Geelong V Brisbane at Skilled Stadium Sunday

Geelong was predicted to be about as good as they were last year – middle of the road and with a bit of luck they might make the 8. Well, there is no doubt now that Geelong has emerged as the great Victorian hope to take the flag back to that state when they win the grand final. Admittedly, they are having a great run which started with the annihilation of Richmond and it will be difficult to see them stopped this week by the Lions. Have the Cats got the claws to stay in premiership contention? Yeah, I think they now have sufficient momentum to stay in the top 4 and be a serious contender for the flag. On the other hand, while Brisbane started the season well after surprisingly making the NAB cup grand final against Carlton, their younger players are finding it tough going as the season pushes on. You can’t expect the Blacks and the Browns to continually play colourful football without sustained support from the rookies. Brisbane will find it tougher as the season unfolds and they will be lucky to be out of the bottom 4 after round 22. They certainly will not win this game.

Geelong by 72

Port Adelaide V Essendon at AAMI Stadium Sunday

James Hird is one of my all time favourite players so you would wonder, on his performances in the last two weeks, whether the tales of his retirement are merely hopeful figments of the imaginations of opposing teams. His efforts last week were what made the one point difference. Where to for Essendon this year considering there were few who gave them a chance of making the finals after last season? Good lord, didn’t they get a preference draft pick due to their pitiful 2006 season? Was that another Sheedy master stroke? I’m still trying to put my finger on what happened last week when after the first quarter one could have easily thought the Bombers were going to get thrashed by the West Coast Eagles. Essendon sit 4th on the ladder but four of those wins were very close and could have gone either way. Will they make the final 8? I’m suggesting that they will be happy to go from second last to 9th this season. Port Adelaide were on top of the ladder at 6-1 and are now 6-5 and the news might even get worse after this game. Port will struggle to make the finals this year and even they doubt that happening anyway. I can see them as finishing around 10th but I can see them winning one in front of their rabid home crowd this weekend and put a stop to the Essendon billycart.

Port Adelaide by 7

Richmond V Melbourne at MCG Friday Night

The Demons have found a bit of form at last and have won their last two games. That winning streak will go to three after this game against the Tigers who may stay winless this season. Most of us thought Melbourne would be up there in the top 8 by this stage of the year but half way through even their supporters will have serious doubts about them making the finals. And let’s face it, they would need to win every game to get the 13 wins required to achieve that feat and that isn’t going to happen. Melbourne should finish with 8 or 9 wins for the season if they can keep injuries down to a manageable level. Richmond remains a major disappointment to their supporters. There seemed to be a light at the end of the tunnel at the conclusion of last season but that light has not so much faded but has been extinguished with a fair bit of the dousing water coming from their coach who stated that they should be okay by 2011. As a Magpie supporter I’m so happy to hear that!! The Tigers will finish with the wooden spoon but they will be a threat to some sides as they can play with an attitude of nothing to lose that may bring them a victory against an unwary opposition. For us tipsters we shouldn’t worry ourselves too much about working out just which game that might be! This one won’t be one of them either.

Melbourne by 41

Sydney V Collingwood at Telstra Stadium Saturday Night

Since the Olympic Games it’s only been this annual AFL fixture that can get close to filling this stadium. (I await that point to be shot down by some rugby or soccer supporter!) Sydney have lost a couple more than one would have expected after being grand finalists last year but they still have the ability and the cattle to make another concerted bid for the flag this season. That one point loss against the Bombers would have hurt them but the Swans are not that badly placed for us to discount them from top 4 contention. The loss of Tadhg for the next 4 – 6 weeks will test them. Collingwood were given little hope of being premiership contenders and that thought would still be correct but their current ladder position and the way they are playing the game would be giving supporters some food for wishful thinking. Forget it guys, they won’t play in the big one but they will have a fair say in which team does as well as which teams finish in the 8 with the Pies. My estimate of Collingwood for 2007 was 9th or 10th and the competition is so tight that it may come to pass but I’m confident that with the return of some of their senior players the Magpies will do well enough to finish 7th or 8th. For this game? Well, they have a reasonable record for this particular game against the Swans at Telstra so they might go close. Sydney’s ability to shut down the forwards like Rocca and Didak will be a telling factor and unless the Pies get a return to the game with Clement and Shaw and Presti then the back line will struggle to stop the Swans kicking the winning score. As this game is still over a week away it’s hard to make a prediction without seeing the sides but I’m inclined to go for Sydney.

Sydney by 10

West Coast Eagles V St Kilda at Subiaco Sunday

Off field troubles have not helped the Eagles in their quest for consecutive flags but it seems the distractions are more with the press and opposition supporters than with the players who swept all before them at season start with 6 wins. There have been some hiccups over the past few weeks but not enough to make many think that the Eagles won’t be there on that last Saturday in September. They have some quality players yet to return in Cousins (yep, he’ll be back), Embley and Nicoski to mention just 3 and not all teams will get away with marginally legal manhandling of Judd and Kerr as did Essendon last week. If West Coast drops another three games this season I will be surprised. Not so good is the story for St Kilda who has had a terrible year for injuries much like the Bombers last year. Key players out with major injuries are impossible to replace. The new coach factor has a bit to do with the Saints as well and I’m sure that the negative Thomas factor added to the new Ross Lyon’s factor is working as a double whammy on the Saints players. Gehrig was injured last week to add to their woes. The Saints will be lucky to finish higher than 12th this season and you can be sure that this trip to Subiaco will be as sad if not sadder than the last trip here a few weeks ago when they played the Dockers who thumped them by 10 goals. Saints supporters can expect the same margin for this game and I don’t have to wait to see teams announced to tell you that.

West Coast by 66