AFL Weekly Preview Round 13 2007

PREVIEW ROUND 13 2007

(Last week 5 from 8 total 55 from 96 =57.3%)

They say a week is a long time in football and there’s some truth in that because these two weeks have been an eternity!!! The Cousins saga continues, Judd out injured for a couple of weeks, Daniher resigns as Melbourne coach and collects $25,000 from the bookies because he was at longer odds than Laidley, Connolly and Wallace as the first coach to go in 2007, Tarrant does a Magpie on the Dockers reminding the Dorks just why they shouldn’t have taken him in the draft and Murphy’s Law takes a grip on Aussie Rules as the Oirish take over the sport by stealth!!

We’re just over half way through the season and whilst the tipping has been difficult those tipsters that are 10 points off the pace really do have an opportunity to make up the difference in the next 10 rounds. If tipsters had followed the previews they wouldn’t be too far off the money as a 5 last week was better than 93% of the tipping population with that 7% representing tipsters who enter competitions with 42 different aliases one of which is bound to score at least 7 per week and of course those that know nothing about the game but can enter uncannily accurate tips. Listen friend, their days are numbered! Mind you, this week’s fixtures area nightmare and the challenge is to pick with enough smarts to score at least 5 points. Knowing what we know after watching these teams for 12 rounds we all realise that anything can happen in these games and it would not be a smartarsed prediction to say that round 13 may give us the second draw of the season. Good luck!

Essendon V Melbourne at Telstra Dome Friday Night

The question on everyone’s lips, well ours anyway, is will the Demons lift on the occasion of their coach’s last game? The question we really should be asking is whether the Melbourne players are actually good enough to rise to the occasion anyway. I guess the decision is made easier when you see that they are playing the pretenders to the 8 in Essendon who will be only too aware of the possibility of an emotional upset in this game as the Melbourne players try to win one for their resigning coach. Tipsters, this is a head game but remember, which team played so badly that they let Richmond build a 10 goal lead to half time in a game of football? As much as I hate to pick the Bombers you would have to estimate that players like Lloyd, Lucas, Peverill and Hird will be out to make Daniher’s parting nightmare just that ­ a bad dream from which he will only awaken on Saturday morning. I reckon Neil will sleep in on Saturday morning and wake with a head so clear he might even read the Herald Sun and laugh at the previous evening’s result. GoodonyerDanners!!

Essendon by 5

Geelong V Sydney at Skilled Stadium Saturday

So has Big Bad Barry got a sore groin or a sore head from playing so badly for so long - like for 12 games?! Did the temptation of $10million to start boxing actually throw Bazza off his game? Dear tipster, that amount of money would have made me think I tell ya. I tipped a Collingwood win last week and the final margin of 19 points really flattered the Swans who were 44 points down at one stage. How do you think they will fare after a flight to Melbourne and drive down the freeway to Geelong? I wonder if the AFL teams act like we did when we went on those footy bus rides singing songs and mucking about and mooning passing cars and generally misbehaving to the point of arrest? I bet the Sydney players will be a quiet lot wondering just how they will beat the league leaders on their own dung heap in Ford country so as to avoid a mid season 6-7 score sheet. They’re better off mooning passing cars.

Geelong by 22

Fremantle V Carlton at Subiaco Saturday

I try never to get personal in my previews but I will pose the question to the Melbourne football club ­ why would you pick Connolly to coach your team when his taste of success at Fremantle has been rather short lived and you are replacing an unsuccessful coach with another unsuccessful coach?? Sorry, just asking. I tell you what, if Pagan is out of contract at Carlton then either Melbourne or Freo should grab him and they will taste success within 3 years. Which brings us to this game between the Blues and the Dorks. We all know one thing for sure ­ Carlton will not make the final 8 this season and the way it is looking Freo may be in the same half of the ladder as the Blues when the 22nd game is played this year. While I find it hard to make a case for Carlton to win the game it is without a great deal of confidence that I select Fremantle…… but one can only hope for the sake of our tipping score that they should prevail ­ please.

Fremantle by 44

Brisbane V Port Adelaide at Gabba Saturday Night

The Power have made a mini come back after losing 5 games in a row but this trip to the Gabba is fraught with danger. These tips in this round are getting harder and this is no easy game to pick. The Lions seem to have hit a wall after a bright start to the season and our prediction that they won’t make the finals seems justified. Port really came back to celebrate Tredrea’s 200th but can they sustain the form? The closest Brisbane have come to a win of late is a draw against the league wooden spooners - Richmond. What is the best formula when in doubt? Pick the home team ­ okay.

Brisbane by 19

St Kilda V Richmond at Telstra Dome Sunday

The only results stopping me from scoring a creditable 7 last week was that both these teams won ­ unexpectedly, although having said that it is only fair to say that we expect Richmond to lose every week and they let us down. Don’t underestimate that win by the Saints against the Eagles at Subiaco as it was probably one of the upsets of the year. It’s a shame Koschitzke has done a hamstring but maybe Harvey can cover the loss by getting an extra 10 possessions for the game. What a player ­ best on ground at age 36 with 350 games played. While this is another difficult game to pick based on last week’s results let’s be realistic, the Tigers are basically pretty hopeless as are St Kilda this year so the decision should be made by looking at astrological signs or some similar ethereal reasoning. So, based on spiritual reasoning you have to go the Saints no?

St Kilda by 41

Adelaide V West Coast at AAMI Stadium Sunday

Truth be known Eagles supporters that if you remove Embley, Judd, Cousins and Fletcher from your side and have players like Kerr back from suspension you are mucking about with well over 100 possessions in a game of football and as good as your depth of players may be that amount of leather handling has to affect your results. Embley may be back and like Fletcher if he returns they will be short of match practice. The Eagles may need to go through a bit of pain between now and finals time although one would be hard pushed to see them not make a top four finish. They come up against a team that was predicted to finish top four as well and in this case a team that is showing a bit better form. I know West Coast beat them last year a couple of times (I think) and once was in Adelaide but I reckon that with the players they have out and the form of other stars the Eagles will struggle to win this one at AAMI. I find it hard to pick the Eagles losing two in a row but that’s footy.

Adelaide by 11

Kangaroos V Western Bulldogs at MCG Sunday

I made the mistake of not selecting St Kilda to win in Robert Harvey’s 350th game. Should I risk making the same mistake by not picking the Kangaroos for Archer’s 300th? Not much to pick between these sides as they both sit with a 7 ­ 5 win loss ratio but you would have to think that the Kangaroos seem to playing above themselves while the Bulldogs are playing below themselves, compared to last season. Will the Kangaroos really make the finals? Geez, nobody thought so at the start of the season. By the way, as a point of interest, don’t you think Luke Darcy will make a great football commentator when he retires from the game? This should be a close game, another possible draw wouldn’t you think?

Western Bulldogs by 3

Collingwood V Hawthorn at Telstra Dome Sunday Late Arvo

Tipsters, if you thought the last 7 games were difficult to pick then have a go at this one. Bothe teams are showing some spirited form and based on their season to date we should see a great game of footy. Both these coaches ask their players to take risks and not shirk confrontation. The game is being played at the Dome late Sunday afternoon and the AFL has risked losing a crowd of 70,000 plus by holding it at this venue. Should be a great game, both teams are trying to prove that they are worthy of their lofty standing s on the ladder, 2nd versus  fourth, and in your wildest dreams you would not have picked these teams to hold those positions at this stage of the season. The Pies without Rocca will test them even though I watched him in one game during which he had about 2 possessions in total and Collingwood still won. With Adelaide, the Bullies, Power and the Bombers all below them on the ladder and tipped to win, a loss by either side will probably result in a ladder freefall for one of them. I just think the Hawks are better structured up forward with options in Franklin, Hodge and Williams and this will be a telling difference. Hate to do it but gotta go the Hawks.