By Lachlan Hellyer reporting for AFANA from Toronto
(Ed: note: Our newest contributor, Lachlan Hellyer, will be reviewing the Aussie rules season thus far in a three part series over the "bye rounds" of 11, 12, and 13. He will take a look at the progress each team has made to the midway point of the season. This week, part two, with six more teams: Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, Gold Coast, St Kilda and Sydney have this week off. This is their season so far.)
Collingwood
Win/Loss record: 8-3
After having missed the finals for the first time since 2005 last year, Collingwood has surprised more than a few people in 2015. However, the club started 2014 with the same win/loss record they currently have. The Magpies are playing good footy, but it is far from a foregone conclusion that the club will make the finals just yet.
Of the eight teams Collingwood have beaten, only GWS Giants occupy a place in the top eight. The other seven sides Collingwood have recorded victories against are the current bottom seven as the ladder stands. The Magpies are yet to take a serious scalp this season, and upon their return from the bye, Collingwood face a series of difficult opponents. A match against Fremantle in Perth next Thursday night is followed by a Friday night blockbuster with Hawthorn, then Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval in another Thursday night showcase event. These matches present Collingwood with the most challenging run of games in the second half of the season. Win one of their next three, and the club might set themselves up for a tilt at the top four with a more manageable fixture in the run home.
Are Collingwood as good as we think? In 2014, they were unable to sustain their excellent early season form. Collingwood’s team is very young, which might mean the players will not run out the season with the same exuberance. At 8-3, the team is well placed to make the finals. The players have been in the AFL system for another year, and will be better for the experience. I am not convinced the club are top four bound, but the top eight is certainly achievable.
Essendon
Win/Loss record: 4-7
Under interim coach Mark Thompson, Essendon were heavily criticized for playing a slow and unattractive brand of football in 2014. Despite the negative media attention though, and notwithstanding a low average score of only 83 points per match, the Bombers reached the finals. With James Hird back in charge after serving a 12 month suspension, many of the same critics of Thompson’s 2014 Bombers believed Hird’s 2015 model would reap vastly greater rewards.
The season began with a brilliant performance against Sydney. Although they were not able to hold on to a 41 point lead, the Bombers were unanimously praised by the media and the fans. Essendon would take reigning premier Hawthorn down the following week, cementing the club as an early contender in 2015 in the minds of many people. Ten weeks on however, the Bombers have beaten only Carlton and St Kilda, and have lost more matches and more than a few admirers.
James Hird has failed to successfully alter the way in which his team transitions the ball up the ground. Before the season started, it was a popular belief that Hird would have his players daring to play with speed and willing to play with a sense of unpredictability. The same problems that plagued the club last season are just as prevalent this time around. Essendon are averaging ten points less in 2015 than they did under Mark Thompson last season, just 73. Maybe it wasn't the coaching after all.
On the other side of the bye, Essendon again face the reigning premiers, Hawthorn. Winnable matches against St Kilda and Melbourne follow, but no game is a guarantee for the Bombers. The club is no doubt capable of instigating a change of their own fortunes, having some talented footballers in all areas of the ground. Essendon will probably win between nine and eleven games for the year. Unless the stars align and the Bombers storm into finals contention, the club will have moved backwards in 2015.
Fremantle
Win/Loss record: 10-1
In 2009, under current Fremantle coach Ross Lyon, St Kilda conceded less than 64 points per match, the lowest since 1968. In 2015, the Dockers are on target to concede even less. Arguably the greatest tactical mind in the game, Ross Lyon is not a premiership coach, failing to win one from three attempts. Having already fallen short on the final Saturday once in 2013, the Dockers will be out to atone this time around.
The club seem to have limped into the bye, having narrowly accounted for Adelaide and the lowly Gold Coast, and suffered an inexplicable thumping loss at the hands of Richmond. The coaches and players will be wary they do not suffer from burnout, so it is entirely likely the club have been managing themselves with caution, and may continue to do so as the season goes on.
After the bye week, Fremantle will enjoy back-to-back home matches against Collingwood and the Brisbane Lions, before venturing to Tasmania to face Hawthorn, the team who beat them for the premiership in 2013. The club do close the season with some challenging games, something that will help them as they bid to remain at the height of their skills as the finals approach.
Just how powerful are Fremantle? Aaron Sandilands and Nathan Fyfe are in career best form, and are exhilarating in combination out of the middle of the ground. David Mundy and Michael Barlow are strong midfielders, while Danyle Pearce and Stephen Hill provide the Dockers class and speed. Fremantle’s defensive group are ruthless, and the club has a variety of key position forwards and brilliant elusive smalls.
Fremantle are the best football team in the competition at the half way mark, but that doesn’t always lead to a premiership. Ross Lyon deserves to be called a premiership coach by the time his coaching career is done. The Dockers will likely win at 18 matches in the home and away season, and will go very close to winning the premiership. Perhaps only Sydney might have the most to say in whether the Dockers do or not claim the final prize.
Gold Coast Suns
Win/Loss record: 1-10
Since their inception into the competition, the Suns have gone from strength to strength. The club signed superstar Gary Ablett before playing their first game, and have developed a number of high draft selections into stars of the future. In 2014, Gold Coast won seven of their opening nine matches. Despite failing to capitalize on their terrific form, the club set a new personal record of ten wins for a season.
Before the beginning of the season, Gold Coast were considered finals contenders. Some critics even considered the club top four aspirants. A series of injuries to key players have contributed to the Suns’ downfall, but the blame does not end there. The unexplainable and bizarre sacking of coach Guy McKenna was one of a number of factors that has lead Gold Coast down this path. The appointment of Rodney Eade as coach, a man who had been out of the game for three years, certainly seems questionable in hindsight.
Gold Coast have been fortunate in one way; they have been forced to play some of their young draft picks that would not have been given a game under regular circumstances. In the long run, the club will benefit from the early exposure these players have had to AFL football. As for 2015, Gold Coast will want to avoid finishing last, and to generate some excitement in a bid to win a few more games. The worst record in club history is 3-19, they should manage to at least equal that. From 1-10, four wins would not be a disastrous result.
St Kilda
Win/Loss record: 4-7
For the 27th time in club history, St Kilda finished last in 2014. It is a staggering statistic and no other side has ever finished last more than 13 times. The football world has been patient with the Saints. It is common knowledge the club has undergone a serious rebuild, so it was not entirely unexpected to see them win only four matches last season.
Many critics expected St Kilda to once again collect the “wooden spoon” in 2015, but halfway through the season, the club has already recorded 4 victories. Come from behind victories have become something of a trademark of the club this season, having beaten the Western Bulldogs and the Brisbane Lions after spotting them both big leads.
The Saints have exceeded expectations thus far this season, and the talented young players on the team have reached a level of maturity few people thought they were capable of this early in their careers. St Kilda face a challenging second half of the year, particularly from Round 18. The club closes the season with Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval); Fremantle (Etihad Stadium); North Melbourne (Tasmania); Geelong (Etihad Stadium); Sydney (Etihad Stadium) and West Coast (Domain Stadium). I do not expect the same return of four wins from the club’s remaining eleven matches, but six or seven victories for the season would be a great result for the club.
Sydney Swans
Win/Loss record: 9-2
A powerhouse of the competition, the Swans are in prime position to launch an attack on the 2015 premiership. With some of the most accomplished footballers in the competition, it would be understandable if Sydney felt discontented at not having followed their 2012 premiership with a second in 2013 or 2014.
The best side for most of 2014, Sydney have once again laid a strong claim to that title in 2015. Only the top-of-the-ladder Fremantle, and the intriguing Bulldogs have beaten the Swans. On the club’s resumption after the bye, they face Richmond and Port Adelaide. Both challenging opponents, although both matches will be played at the SCG. Sydney also play consecutive games against Hawthorn (ANZ Stadium); West Coast (Domain Stadium); Adelaide (SCG) and Geelong (Simonds Stadium); a run that will provide the club with it’s most difficult collection of matches for the remainder of the year.
The Swans are likely to win 17 or 18 matches for the home and away season. Only Fremantle are ahead in the premiership race, and that is only a matter of this writer’s opinion. Neither Sydney nor Fremantle will be happy with anything short of a premiership, failings of the past can only be erased with the ultimate prize in October. Footy fans have been blessed with two superstar teams in action this season. Without a serious challenger, a forecast now would place these two great sides in the decider.
Add your analysis in the comments below and read the other two parts to this series. Read Part One Read Part Three
(Ed: note: Our newest contributor, Lachlan Hellyer, will be reviewing the Aussie rules season thus far in a three part series over the "bye rounds" of 11, 12, and 13. He will take a look at the progress each team has made to the midway point of the season. This week, part two, with six more teams: Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, Gold Coast, St Kilda and Sydney have this week off. This is their season so far.)
Collingwood
Win/Loss record: 8-3
After having missed the finals for the first time since 2005 last year, Collingwood has surprised more than a few people in 2015. However, the club started 2014 with the same win/loss record they currently have. The Magpies are playing good footy, but it is far from a foregone conclusion that the club will make the finals just yet.
Of the eight teams Collingwood have beaten, only GWS Giants occupy a place in the top eight. The other seven sides Collingwood have recorded victories against are the current bottom seven as the ladder stands. The Magpies are yet to take a serious scalp this season, and upon their return from the bye, Collingwood face a series of difficult opponents. A match against Fremantle in Perth next Thursday night is followed by a Friday night blockbuster with Hawthorn, then Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval in another Thursday night showcase event. These matches present Collingwood with the most challenging run of games in the second half of the season. Win one of their next three, and the club might set themselves up for a tilt at the top four with a more manageable fixture in the run home.
Are Collingwood as good as we think? In 2014, they were unable to sustain their excellent early season form. Collingwood’s team is very young, which might mean the players will not run out the season with the same exuberance. At 8-3, the team is well placed to make the finals. The players have been in the AFL system for another year, and will be better for the experience. I am not convinced the club are top four bound, but the top eight is certainly achievable.
Essendon
Win/Loss record: 4-7
Under interim coach Mark Thompson, Essendon were heavily criticized for playing a slow and unattractive brand of football in 2014. Despite the negative media attention though, and notwithstanding a low average score of only 83 points per match, the Bombers reached the finals. With James Hird back in charge after serving a 12 month suspension, many of the same critics of Thompson’s 2014 Bombers believed Hird’s 2015 model would reap vastly greater rewards.
The season began with a brilliant performance against Sydney. Although they were not able to hold on to a 41 point lead, the Bombers were unanimously praised by the media and the fans. Essendon would take reigning premier Hawthorn down the following week, cementing the club as an early contender in 2015 in the minds of many people. Ten weeks on however, the Bombers have beaten only Carlton and St Kilda, and have lost more matches and more than a few admirers.
James Hird has failed to successfully alter the way in which his team transitions the ball up the ground. Before the season started, it was a popular belief that Hird would have his players daring to play with speed and willing to play with a sense of unpredictability. The same problems that plagued the club last season are just as prevalent this time around. Essendon are averaging ten points less in 2015 than they did under Mark Thompson last season, just 73. Maybe it wasn't the coaching after all.
On the other side of the bye, Essendon again face the reigning premiers, Hawthorn. Winnable matches against St Kilda and Melbourne follow, but no game is a guarantee for the Bombers. The club is no doubt capable of instigating a change of their own fortunes, having some talented footballers in all areas of the ground. Essendon will probably win between nine and eleven games for the year. Unless the stars align and the Bombers storm into finals contention, the club will have moved backwards in 2015.
Fremantle
Win/Loss record: 10-1
In 2009, under current Fremantle coach Ross Lyon, St Kilda conceded less than 64 points per match, the lowest since 1968. In 2015, the Dockers are on target to concede even less. Arguably the greatest tactical mind in the game, Ross Lyon is not a premiership coach, failing to win one from three attempts. Having already fallen short on the final Saturday once in 2013, the Dockers will be out to atone this time around.
The club seem to have limped into the bye, having narrowly accounted for Adelaide and the lowly Gold Coast, and suffered an inexplicable thumping loss at the hands of Richmond. The coaches and players will be wary they do not suffer from burnout, so it is entirely likely the club have been managing themselves with caution, and may continue to do so as the season goes on.
After the bye week, Fremantle will enjoy back-to-back home matches against Collingwood and the Brisbane Lions, before venturing to Tasmania to face Hawthorn, the team who beat them for the premiership in 2013. The club do close the season with some challenging games, something that will help them as they bid to remain at the height of their skills as the finals approach.
Just how powerful are Fremantle? Aaron Sandilands and Nathan Fyfe are in career best form, and are exhilarating in combination out of the middle of the ground. David Mundy and Michael Barlow are strong midfielders, while Danyle Pearce and Stephen Hill provide the Dockers class and speed. Fremantle’s defensive group are ruthless, and the club has a variety of key position forwards and brilliant elusive smalls.
Fremantle are the best football team in the competition at the half way mark, but that doesn’t always lead to a premiership. Ross Lyon deserves to be called a premiership coach by the time his coaching career is done. The Dockers will likely win at 18 matches in the home and away season, and will go very close to winning the premiership. Perhaps only Sydney might have the most to say in whether the Dockers do or not claim the final prize.
Gold Coast Suns
Win/Loss record: 1-10
Since their inception into the competition, the Suns have gone from strength to strength. The club signed superstar Gary Ablett before playing their first game, and have developed a number of high draft selections into stars of the future. In 2014, Gold Coast won seven of their opening nine matches. Despite failing to capitalize on their terrific form, the club set a new personal record of ten wins for a season.
Before the beginning of the season, Gold Coast were considered finals contenders. Some critics even considered the club top four aspirants. A series of injuries to key players have contributed to the Suns’ downfall, but the blame does not end there. The unexplainable and bizarre sacking of coach Guy McKenna was one of a number of factors that has lead Gold Coast down this path. The appointment of Rodney Eade as coach, a man who had been out of the game for three years, certainly seems questionable in hindsight.
Gold Coast have been fortunate in one way; they have been forced to play some of their young draft picks that would not have been given a game under regular circumstances. In the long run, the club will benefit from the early exposure these players have had to AFL football. As for 2015, Gold Coast will want to avoid finishing last, and to generate some excitement in a bid to win a few more games. The worst record in club history is 3-19, they should manage to at least equal that. From 1-10, four wins would not be a disastrous result.
St Kilda
Win/Loss record: 4-7
For the 27th time in club history, St Kilda finished last in 2014. It is a staggering statistic and no other side has ever finished last more than 13 times. The football world has been patient with the Saints. It is common knowledge the club has undergone a serious rebuild, so it was not entirely unexpected to see them win only four matches last season.
Many critics expected St Kilda to once again collect the “wooden spoon” in 2015, but halfway through the season, the club has already recorded 4 victories. Come from behind victories have become something of a trademark of the club this season, having beaten the Western Bulldogs and the Brisbane Lions after spotting them both big leads.
The Saints have exceeded expectations thus far this season, and the talented young players on the team have reached a level of maturity few people thought they were capable of this early in their careers. St Kilda face a challenging second half of the year, particularly from Round 18. The club closes the season with Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval); Fremantle (Etihad Stadium); North Melbourne (Tasmania); Geelong (Etihad Stadium); Sydney (Etihad Stadium) and West Coast (Domain Stadium). I do not expect the same return of four wins from the club’s remaining eleven matches, but six or seven victories for the season would be a great result for the club.
Sydney Swans
Win/Loss record: 9-2
A powerhouse of the competition, the Swans are in prime position to launch an attack on the 2015 premiership. With some of the most accomplished footballers in the competition, it would be understandable if Sydney felt discontented at not having followed their 2012 premiership with a second in 2013 or 2014.
The best side for most of 2014, Sydney have once again laid a strong claim to that title in 2015. Only the top-of-the-ladder Fremantle, and the intriguing Bulldogs have beaten the Swans. On the club’s resumption after the bye, they face Richmond and Port Adelaide. Both challenging opponents, although both matches will be played at the SCG. Sydney also play consecutive games against Hawthorn (ANZ Stadium); West Coast (Domain Stadium); Adelaide (SCG) and Geelong (Simonds Stadium); a run that will provide the club with it’s most difficult collection of matches for the remainder of the year.
The Swans are likely to win 17 or 18 matches for the home and away season. Only Fremantle are ahead in the premiership race, and that is only a matter of this writer’s opinion. Neither Sydney nor Fremantle will be happy with anything short of a premiership, failings of the past can only be erased with the ultimate prize in October. Footy fans have been blessed with two superstar teams in action this season. Without a serious challenger, a forecast now would place these two great sides in the decider.
Add your analysis in the comments below and read the other two parts to this series. Read Part One Read Part Three
Article last changed on Sunday, June 28, 2015 - 12:04 PM EDT
