by John Loffler
(Last week 4 from 8. 21 / 40 =52.5%)
Nobody said this was easy. I’m trying to remember a season that started so poorly for tipping based on some early season form exhibited by teams in previous years but alas, old age won’t allow the regression. Diabolical game results may require devilish tipping. There have been a number of assumptions made at the start of the season that probably need revisiting.
1. Assumed West Coast would be as good as last year – correct
2. Assumed Sydney would be as good as last year – reasonably correct
3. Assumed Adelaide would be as bad as they finished last year – incorrect
4. Assumed Port Adelaide would be as average as last year – incorrect
5. Assumed Collingwood would be going nowhere near the 8 this year – incorrect, I think
6. Assumed the Brisbane Lions were going to be really average this year – incorrect possibly
7. Assumed the Kangaroos would finish in the bottom three – might be correct but giving us tipsters a bit of grief at the moment
8. Assumed the Tigers would show a few more teeth – incorrect, extraction complete.
9. Assumed Fremantle would be as good as if not better than last year – incorrect they need to win a few more to get that assumption right
10. Assumed Carlton would be a lay down misere for the wooden spoon – incorrect, they might win 7 games this year
11. Assumed Essendon would do a lot better with Lloyd back in team – well, maybe correct but really not looking like much outside of the bottom 4
12. Assumed the Saints would be right up there this year – incorrect, they will struggle to make the 8 and injuries are taking their toll
13. Assumed the Hawks would be de-feathered and finish really low – might be correct but they seem to be winning a few
14. Assumed the Bulldogs would finish in top 4 – still might but getting used to Darcy and Murphy back in the team is not working well at the moment
15. Assumed Demons would finish highest of the Victorian teams – ha ha.
16. Assumed Geelong would be middle of the road – correct
Now when you put all that into the mix of teams and add commitment, vigour, tribunal hearings, drug abuse, extracurricular activities legal and illegal (and Ben is an ill Eagle), umpiring interpretations of questionable rule changes, dumb interviewers, dumb reporters, dumb newspaper articles, dumb ground reporters, team movements interstate, youthful enthusiasm and million dollar pay packets for AFL execs, then tipping more than 5 right on a weekly basis is darn hard huh? Looking for a sign? A mate of mine’s wife scratched a $100,000 ticket on Wednesday. What’s that a sign for in the tipping? Who cares that’s what! This week’s round is going to be difficult enough from which to make intelligent picks without having to worry about what I was going to spend $100k on! I wish. Good luck.
St Kilda V Carlton Telstra Dome Friday Night
This is the 6th round and I don’t think I have got a Saints or Blues tip right yet and I doubt that will change tonight. The Carlton versus the Lions was a great game to watch last week and with similar conditions at Telstra you would hope the Saints can match up okay on the young Blues side. The Saints have lost Lenny Hayes who, when added to the other good players on their injury list, is a serious loss and not evened out with the return of the G train in Gehrig. The Saints have a few players down on form as well and they will need to play well tonight to stop Carlton from notching another unexpected win for this season. I’m not sure the Saints can do it and I’m still reluctant to pick the Blues. So I won’t. This means that if you want to get this tip right then do the opposite to me.
Saints by 12
Essendon V Hawthorn MCG Saturday Arvo
Well tipsters, if you thought the last game was going to be hard to pick then let’s see what you think about this one. Both these teams are in the top 8 so you need to get your head around that fact for starters! Both teams have won 3 from five – another amazing statistic. Essendon were ordinary against the Pies on Anzac day after the first quarter while the Hawks almost snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against the Doggies last week and it makes me think that they have just enough better players across the ground than the Bombers. But hey, who really knows?
Hawthorn by 11
West Coast Eagles V Western Bulldogs Subiaco Saturday Arvo
Now I have already stated that the Bullies are having trouble with Darcy and Murphy and a long flight over to Perth cramped in small leg clearance airline seats isn’t going to help the cause for the Bulldogs. The Eagles are really on fire and apart from a small glitch against the Tigers last week which can be put down to a mountain of reasons none smaller than their playing their one and only game at the MCG they look like the team to beat for the flag. West Coast supporters are hopeful that Whoosher doesn’t do a Malthouse and extracts only one or two premierships from this group of players as they are strong enough and have great enough depth to win the next three flags assuming Judd doesn’t go to the Pies next year. All Australian Chad Fletcher can’t even get his place back in the side and even Ben may have to get onto something stronger than laxatives later in the season to force his way back as well. It’s hard to make a case for the Western Bulldogs although Rocket Eade is a smart coach and he may have some unusual moves to put the Eagles off their game. It’s this sort of match that has some tipsters salivating at the thought of picking against the odds. I won’t.
West Coast by 38
Kangaroos V Sydney Swans Telstra Dome Saturday Night
3 weeks ago I would have jotted down a one liner about how bad the Kangaroos are and how they would be better off surfing on the Gold Coast somewhere but tipsters, footy’s a funny game. They say that about cricket as well. Over the past two weeks the Kangaroos have a better win loss ratio than the Swans which is another reason why stats are put into sports games to bewilder and befuddle but are not believable. Beaut! Look at just who the Kangaroos have beaten and that may give you good enough reason to go this way.
Sydney by 33
Adelaide V Collingwood at AAMI Stadium Saturday Night
I didn’t pick the Pies against Richmond. I didn’t pick the Pies against Essendon. I picked the Pies against port Adelaide. That should be enough proof to show you that I know diddly squat about tipping. But, I dare you to pick against me this time.
Adelaide by 21
Brisbane Lions V Fremantle at Gabba Sunday arvo
The Brisbane Lions in the 8 playing against the would-be premiers Fremantle at the Gabba. You will have to admit the Lions are playing some good football and Jonathon Brown along with Simon Black are leading the way. However, that doesn’t make this tip black and white. Fremantle are a good side and I watched them play some very hard football. It’s amazing what can happen when a team man’s up and goes in hard to make the play. Teams actually win games like they did 50 years ago adopting these same dumb tactics. Somebody got it right back then but all we want to do is fiddle with it. Watch successful teams like West Coast, Adelaide and Sydney and observe their game strategy. With Brisbane and the Dockers both teams won good, hard games and it is hoped that Freo can recover from the hype of Farmer’s indiscretion and McManus’ 200th to play the Lions the same way as they played against Adelaide. It really was a great game to watch, clangers and all, which, by the way, were brought on by the pressure of the game. Brisbane aren’t in quite the same class as the Dockers but the game is being played on their home ground and it’s a big ride for Freo up to Brisbane. Can they win three in a row? They have to.
Fremantle by 18
Melbourne V Port Adelaide at MCG Sunday arvo
What a wonderful season the Demons are having folks – not! It’s certainly a good sign that David Neitz is returning for Melbourne but they are going to need a confidence lift of mammoth proportions to overcome a sizzling Port Adelaide who are second on the ladder with just one loss. Is this the sort of game where the odds are stacked so heavily in the favour of one side that it is just plain cheeky to tip against them? Stranger things have happened. What did I say about devilish tipping in a diabolical season? How devilish would it be to pick the Demons? Beelzebub would have been proud.
Melbourne by 6
Richmond V Geelong at Telstra Dome Sunday
How often are we confronted with a game that you just don’t care about? Although if I was a Richmond supporter I would be excited enough to know that we were playing Geelong and therefore there was a chance of us opening our winning account for the season. I’d hate to be on the receiving end of a Bomber Thompson tirade and he must have given the guys a spray after last week’s mediocre, pussycat home ground performance against the Kangaroos. Will that be enough to give them the edge against the Tigers who are looking at going through the whole season without a win? Boy, can’t wait for the Richmond game against Melbourne. Somebody has to break the drought in that contest. See, I’ve already lost interest in this game. It could be a draw but I think Richmond is worse than the Cats.
Geelong by 55
Article last changed on Thursday, May 03, 2007 - 6:53 PM EDT
