AFL Weekly Preview Round 17 2006

Last Week: 3 from 8 – Total 83/128 (64.8%)

What a disaster last week tipsters. If you followed my tips that is. Mind you, if you’re a Freo or Collingwood supporter you probably did well and if you picked up the HUGE tip about the Carlton versus Essendon game being a draw then you would be a prince among peasants in the office competition! The problem with tipping footy is not only the frustration with the end result but when there’s merely a kick in it for 3 of the games, as there was, you can go from lollies to boogers in the time it takes to deliver a behind the play low blow to an opposition player. With 6 matches to go and 4 points behind the leader there is still a chance although methinks that the best chance just went begging last week. Having said that and then looking at the games this week there are three that will be difficult to pick and of course there is always the upset looming on the horizon.

There was not a lot to report on the AFL scene this week apart from the continuing Akermanis saga. What a waste of a footballer who made a great living out of being controversial. There’s nothing wrong with being outspoken unless you demean the coach, your teammates and the team rules. Chris Grant plays a record equaling game for the Bulldogs this week to match the legendary Hawkins. That took some doing and what a great footballer Chris Grant is. The race for the final eight is really hotting up and it’s a brave tipster who will pick those last 8 teams even at this stage of the season, well, final 6 because it is hard to see the Eagles and Adelaide missing out although the finishing position in the eight of West Coast is still being questioned. A loss to Adelaide and a win to the Demons will see the Dees replace the Eagles in second position and leave last year’s losing grand finalist open to further assaults from lower teams. Based on current form all teams from 4th to 9th have a chance to make the finals with one of them missing out. I don’t believe Richmond or Brisbane are good enough to make the finals.

Which of the 6 teams actually make it will become clearer as the final few weeks are played out. Watch this space and good luck in your tips this round. I’m off to the bank to hand over a dozen bananas in place of this month’s mortgage payment and I expect change!!

Collingwood V Hawthorn – MCG Friday Night

As enjoyable as it was watching the Pies moider the Eagles last week this looms as a danger game for Collingwood who need to consolidate their ladder position with a win of any size. It seems that the youth of the Hawthorn side have had concentration lapses during games resulting in losses snatched from the jaws of victory. Friday night at the MCG expect a close one and expect Rocca to rock for a change – hopefully. Still have to stay with the Pies on this selection as a percentage pick.

Collingwood by 11

St Kilda V Richmond  – MCG Saturday

 Yes you can say the Tigers were woeful against the Swans last week but then so were the Saints against the Power in Tassie. Richmond have done it all year, that is, follow up a poor performance with an unexpected win due to a change in form. I believe they can do it this week in a game where you expect them to hold sway in the ruck with Symonds on a roll but it will be how the teams play the game above their shoulders in this match. Richmond would need to win nearly every game to make the finals while the Saints have notched 4 wins in a row to put themselves 5th on the ladder and with a bit of momentum. I’ll kick myself if Richmond gets up but the sensible selection will be St Kilda.

St Kilda by 21

West Coast V Adelaide – Subiaco Saturday

Here we have the two best teams in the competition playing each other in what should have been the grand final preview and still may be. Unfortunately the Eagles have lost a few to injury and these include Cox, Fletcher and Hunter so the task, even at home for West Coast, will be a difficult one. The weather has finally turned wintry and we can expect a few showers. It has been raining pretty well all week. No McLeod for the Crows will help even it up a bit but again, as mentioned in the last game preview, mental attitude will have a lot to do with how well the players commit. Statistics, which I hate to bring up but is an evil necessity at times, may play a big part as well because you would expect the Crows to drop at least one if not two more games for the season otherwise Adelaide coach Neil Craig will struggle to keep a lid on the ring of invincibility the players will adopt going into the finals which would be dangerous. If they have to lose a game to maintain momentum (figure that out) this would be a possible. Folks, I’m trying hard to make an argument for West Coast here and really, they have been playing poor footy of late. You either think they can win or not. I give them a great chance at home.

West Coast by 33

Essendon V Brisbane – Telstra Dome Saturday night

The Bombers almost pulled it off last week and they have the opportunity in this game against Brisbane to show Akermanis they are a worthwhile team for him to consider going to next season. While Essendon are playing determined and hard football they aren’t winning games and this could be the case again this week. Fletcher, Hird, McPhee and Johns return for the Bombers so you will have to give them a chance. At Telstra, Sheedy back as coach (not necessarily good but..) and not a lot to play for Essendon might just do it. It’s a roughie.

Essendon by 12

Port Adelaide V Sydney – AAMI Saturday Night

The Power are having a sod of a year and it didn’t improve mid week when Tredrea decided to call it quits for the season due to his ongoing knee injury. Motlop will not have gotten over his after siren miss and the Port Adelaide crowds are dwindling in their fickle way as they also know their beloved Power is powerless to make the finals. Sydney can win without Nick Davis and along with him, Gardiner and Akermanis the draft is looking interesting at the end of this year. The Swans got back a bit of winning form last week against the miserable Tigers and they will be just a bit too even across the ground for Port who are struggling to win at home anyway. Let’s not pursue the point too much.

Sydney by 31

Kangaroos V Geelong – Manuka Sunday

The only thing hot about the Kangaroos this year is their club rooms which burnt down during the week and the occasional bit of steam leaking from Laidley’s ears when he addresses the team after another poor quarter of football. The Cats have strung together a couple of welcome wins the last one being a great one against the Bulldogs by a solitary point. There was a sign there tipsters and I missed it. The Bulldogs won the first one against the Cats by a point so a reverse result was beckoning. Anyway, the Kangaroos can’t train at

Arden Street

and they can’t play at Manuka now they have abandoned Canberra for the sunny climes of Queensland and Carrara. Check the weather forecast for Canberra on Sunday compared to Queensland. How hard (or silly) was that decision? Mind you, I give them every chance of winning this game as the Cats do not like to wear out their paws with travel apart from that game against the Dockers at Subi. So another upset is brewing but surely Thommo will not let Geelong throw away a golden opportunity to continue their season resurrection and they will have a lot more to play for. The unhappy supporters of the Kangaroos in Canberra may support the Cats anyway as a sign of discontent. Geelong can not really afford to drop this game.

Geelong by 29

Carlton V Fremantle – Telstra Dome Sunday 

I will not mock the Blues and I will not mock the Dockers this week which leaves me little else to say but…

Fremantle by 37

Melbourne V Western Bulldogs – MCG Sunday

 

Undoubtedly the match of the round and as both teams are coming off losses there will be a load of desperation on display. Grant reaches a Bulldog milestone rather than a personal one while on the other hand Brad Green is contemplating a personal one after his Liverpool kiss to Crowley of Freo last week will leave him watching from the sidelines. The Demons will know they have a chance of reaching second spot on the ladder with a win in this game should the Eagles falter and the Western Bulldogs are in danger of dropping into the ruck of teams trying to make those last couple of finals spots should they lose. With all the hard work the Bullies have done mixed with all those dreadful injuries it would be a shame to see them drop away at this stage of the season and perhaps end up just outside the final eight like they did last year in different circumstances. Tipsters could opt for another draw here but with the style of play likely to be present with these two teams that’s a highly unlikely result. Heart says Bulldogs and that’s a bad reason so a flip of a coin it is.

 

Western Bulldogs by 3