AFL Weekly Preview Round 18 2006

AFL Preview Round 18 Season 2006

Last Week: 6 from 8 – Total 89/136 (65.4%)

Not too bad with the tips last week. On Saturday night I was on top of the world with 5 from 5 then looked at my tips for Sunday and had doubts about the Melbourne game. I had gained a couple of points on the tipping competition leader but noticed he had picked the Kangaroos and Melbourne. Well, without mercilessly self flagellating about it we all know what happened. A dark Sunday that was almost bleakly black as Carlton piled on the goals against the Dockers in the last quarter in what was looking like an Eagles style come-from-behind victory. So the Dorks held up, just, under pressure, while the Cats were bounced on by the Kangaroos and put back into their bag. “Here kitty, kitty.” Result? One from three on Sunday.

Well tipsters, we are at the gnarly end of the season with just the 5 games to go. As usual I have entered umpteen Trips to the AFL Grand Final competitions and no doubt, as usual, I will be watching on the TV along with all of my footy mates. After a few ales we will hotly discuss and wonder why we were born a generation too soon and as a result have sadly missed out on the minimum wage of about $200,000 for an average AFL footballer. In our dotage we conduct tipping competitions and pontificate on the current state of the game. Anyway….this week there are a few opportunities to catch up a point or two on the leaders so if you’re 5 points down don’t despair. Your goal is to gain a point a week. How many upsets do you think we can have at this stage of the season? Dunno, but I’ve put $100 on Essendon top repeat history at a generous price of $3.75. Good luck.

St Kilda V West Coast – Telstra Dome Friday Night

The experts have the Saints winning this game by anything up to 4 goals. That would mean 6 wins on the trot for the Saints and a form reversal of gargantuan proportions for the Eagles. How well do we rate the Saints? How badly do we rate the Eagles’ chances of winning at Telstra, not their favourite ground in Melbourne? Fraser kicked 10 goals last week. Both teams kicked over 160 points each last week. I’m afraid I don’t rate the Saints that well this year.

West Coast Eagles by 39

Carlton V Melbourne -  Telstra Dome Saturday

Last week I tipped the team that played against the Blues to kick the sweep. The Dockers almost blew (Blue?) it. This week I’ll try again.

Melbourne by 77

Richmond V Western Bulldogs -  MCG Saturday

It’s possible that Richmond will come out and have a major form reversal from last week. It’s also possible that the Hizbollah in Lebanon will surrender. Much adulation for Chris Grant in this record breaking game.

Western Bulldogs by 44

Sydney V Essendon – SCG Saturday

This mob called Sportsbet rang me up unsolicited (they must have my name on a list headed “MUG PUNTER”) and offered me a free, yes a free, $100 bet. So I looked at the fixture and thought Essendon were good last week. I mean they kicked over 25 goals no? Up until that game against the Lions they had beaten only Sydney in round 1. It would be pretty stupid to bet $100 on the Bombers then tip the Swans to my faithful readers so I won’t.

Essendon by 11

Adelaide Collingwood – AAMI Stadium Saturday

The question on everyone’s lips, well Collingwood supporters anyway, is “Will Adelaide be too shell shocked after last week’s flogging by the Eagles to recover in time for this game against the Pies?” Mind you there is a possibility that the other question might be something like: “Why aren’t Tarrant and Johnson being punished for their mid week fracas at a local nightclub by being dropped for this game?” The answer to that is pretty obvious, particularly in Johnson’s case. Ya gotta have your best out there to give you half a chance. I actually do think the Crows will have suffered a major confidence setback from last week but they should recover just enough to pip the Magpies in this game at AAMI in front of 50,000 fans.

Adelaide by 5

Brisbane V Geelong – Gabba Sunday

This should be a classic catfight and it is difficult to actually work out who will win. You would expect the scores to be pretty close although in their earlier meeting Geelong won by 77 points, looked like grand finalists and Brisbane were relegated to the scrap heap. Who knows what happened to the Cats but for them to make the finals they will need to win almost every game and hope that Freo, Sydney or the Bulldogs fall away badly. Well the Dockers may give them that chance and the Cats sure need firing up after last week’s pathetic performance against the Kangaroos. But can you honestly tip them to win – at the Gabba? Nope.

Brisbane by 10

Kangaroos V Port Adelaide – Telstra Dome Sunday

Archer is back for the Shinboners while Tredrea remains out for the Power (and will be for the season). Both teams have won 6 games for the season although the form of the Kangaroos has been somewhat better over the past 5 weeks than that of Port Adelaide. I guess with the game at Telstra the favourites will have to the Kangas but this could go down to the wire.

Kangaroos by 33

Fremantle V Hawthorn – Subiaco Sunday

Did you ever get the feeling about a game that the underdog will be causing an upset here? Okay, I think Hawthorn will win but I’m going to ignore the thought. The Dockers were very poor last week against the Blues, not only in that last quarter but some of the mistakes and turn overs by both teams were a laugh a minute. Fortunately Freo are up against another team that likes to provide their coach with groans of displeasure with their skill errors leading to turnovers. Both teams over use the ball so it should be interesting to see the possession stats, particularly the uncontested ones, at the end of this game. Simply put, Fremantle MUST win. They will.

Fremantle by 29

John Loffler