AFL Weekly Preview Round Seven 2007

AFL SEASON 2007

by John Loffler

PREVIEW ROUND 6

(Last week 4 from 8. 25 / 48 =52.1%)

It was comforting, in a way, to read the comments of some of our AFL experts who said that picking winning teams this season is the hardest they can remember. Aye to that!! If you have been following my tips, firstly apologies, but you would have thought by Saturday afternoon that this guy really knows his stuff. Your opinion undoubtedly changed as the weekend of footy progressed. I was able to ease the pain a bit by lying on the couch on Sunday late afternoon and watch the Cats maul the Tigers in a manner rarely seen in this day and age knowing I had picked the Cats to win and to kick the sweep. Small comfort indeed. It will be interesting to see how Geelong butter up, as they say, in their game against the reigning premiers West Coast who are on a pretty hot winning streak themselves. A 100 point win it won’t be if it is a win at all. I was also thinking that Darren Gaspar was probably glad that he picked that week to retire as a neck injury sustained while watching the ball go over his head some 50 times would have done him little good either. I usually like to point out that there are some difficult games to make a winning selection from this week but that has proven to be the case every week so far. It’s hard to judge just which team has their head right each week, which team has their injuries covered and which first year recruit will star in his game. Still there are some of you tipsters out there that are leading your competition and probably already 10 – 12 points ahead just a third of the way through the season. Undoubtedly you are putting it down to superior football knowledge but we know better. So, a big breath, cut the cr*p and let’s do it! Good luck.

Kangaroos V Essendon Telstra Dome Friday Night

I know this will be a hard one to pick because the betting shows the Kangaroos at $1.91 and the Bombers at $2.00. Maybe that’s the sign we are looking for. Having won their last three in a row Laidley’s Lads are fairly steaming along with the win against the Swans last week a real feather in the cap. Can they win four in a row a feat achieved only by the Eagles so far this season? Can the Bombers drop 3 in a row? Will a conversion to the Islamic faith provide inspirational motivation for Essendon or is this just another crazy Sheedy-ism which is itself a religion? Don’t look to the sky for the answer because the result is in the betting.

Kangaroos by 9

Collingwood V Carlton MCG Saturday Arvo

Having tipped against the Pies again last week, but being overjoyed at the result, would it be too much to ask that they actually win this game against the Blues? I know Carlton are no pushovers this season but are they good enough to burst that Magpie bubble? I’m torn between tipping my own team or to continue my philosophy of not tipping the Blues. Can Collingwood be the best Melbourne based team this season? What a surprise that would be. With two Italian full forwards and their combined IQ equivalent to Richmond’s final score last week who knows which team might get up. Pies for me and the kiss of death for them I guess.

Collingwood by 22

Port Adelaide V Richmond AAMI Stadium Saturday Arvo

Tiger supporters usually make the trip across to Adelaide for this game but after last week’s ignominious effort rumour has it that nobody’s going over this week, including the Richmond coach and the president as the thought of an apology to be made in front of Power supporters would be a bit much even for Wallace. There’s a big difference in watching the Tigers get thrashed by another Victorian team and for them to cop a hiding from a South Australian team. I’m not even a Richmond supporter but I can sympathise with that stance. I know Richmond will come out like men possessed but in the end their inexperience will wilt against the Port pressure and although it won’t be a similar margin to last week it will be a margin of significance. Tipsters, if you’re really well behind the competition leaders here’s a good win in which to tip the underdog for that extra point. Not.

Port Adelaide by 66

Brisbane Lions V Adelaide Gabba Saturday Night

Common sense suggests that the Crows should be the choice in this game but all sense went out the window when the Pies beat Adelaide last week at AAMI. Brisbane will be very hard to beat at the Gabba but I can’t believe they will be shooting for the finals again after such a short time out of premiership calculations and such a short time after their three consecutive flags. Admittedly Johnson, Power, Black and Brown have been unstoppable but if any team has the players to stop them then it’s the Crows. My bet is that Adelaide cannot lose three in a row even if the game is at the Gabba.

Adelaide Crows by 18

St Kilda V Sydney at Telstra Dome Saturday Night

What is the matter with St Kilda? Injuries, form loss, new coach hence new game plan, you name it the Saints can use it as an excuse. Sydney is also just bustling along – a bit like Barry Hall I guess but it will be hard to make a case for the Saints to beat the Swans even with the game at Telstra Dome. The Saints have been a bit difficult to tip as they have won when least expected and lost when least expected, the sign of a really good team huh? Maybe the relationship the Saints players had with their old coach Thommo last year was a positive factor and I sorta liked him as a guy. Well the Saints have won the unexpected game for the new coach as is tradition so I guess now they have to work a bit harder. The Swans have a bit too much consistency all over the ground and in dry conditions at Telstra it will suit. However, I’m not sure.

Sydney by 17

Geelong V West Coast at Skilled Sunday arvo

This is certainly the game of the round unless you’re a Fremantle supporter. The Cats will be on a super high after the result from last week but it could be down to earth with a thud. I mean the Cats could be 86 points ahead of the Eagles with 17 minutes to play and still lose and it’s that bogeyman they will have to overcome. The local Skilled stadium home crowd will be unused to a Geelong win so far this season so it won’t be that painful if they capitulate to the Eagles. The only query then is the Geelong consistency or lack of. On the other side of the coin we all know the Eagles have to lose a few games during the season the question is which ones against which team. I watched the Cats run amok last week but I don’t have to convince any of you tipsters that it won’t be like that this week. 30 something goals last week could drop to as low as 10 this week. Should be a good game. Eagles won here last year as well and they are a better side at this stage of the season. Hard to pick against them. A good challenge for Geelong.

West Coast by 29

Western Bulldogs V Melbourne Telstra Sunday arvo

How unlucky was Melbourne last week against Port Adelaide? You see, umpires shouldn’t be the difference between two teams and football is a hard game to adjudicate especially when umpires disagree on decisions as we often see. Then we have the debacle of umpiring at Subiaco last week as well in a game which the Bulldogs received about 12 free kicks to the Eagles 29 – or something like that. Stats show that the Eagles are getting heaps of free kicks this year in comparison to other teams particularly when they are playing at Subiaco. As it should be dear tipster. If we can’t freak the umpires into a few extra fees when our team is playing at home then we might as well have all our games at the same ground in Alice Springs. But of what value are statistics? A guy in the back line gets 21 handpasses and 19 kicks 90% of which went backwards. The umpires give him 3 Brownlow votes and the case for statistics is strong – useless but strong. If a team gets twice as many frees and still wins the game then it might, just might, be because that team is going in harder and are first to the ball. Make sense? So does picking the Doggies against an improving Melbourne.

Western Bulldogs by 22

Fremantle V Hawthorn at Subiaco Sunday

The ole Dorks would have pencilled this one in at the start of the season as a win I bet. Well tipsters, I have watched Freo play a blinder against the Crows followed by a very dispassionate game against the Lions the week after. Here’s a side that continues to cause its supporters to lament, moan and pull out their hair. Here’s a side that has better players off the field suspended than Richmond has on the field playing. Go figure. And the suspensions aren’t from being tough and relentless (like Try Cook) but from basic football stupidity or spite. Freo are not a tough football team except on the occasions they decide to be – a rare occurrence. Hawthorn is travelling along nicely and haven’t really copped a hiding and the Subiaco ground suits their style of play. They will run the Dockers off their feet. It’s a matter of kicking more goals than the other side, although I believe that’s a requisite for all games isn’t it? I’m not sure I can tip the Dockers but because it’s Hawthorn and they really aren’t the 5th best side in the comp I’ll have another dabble with the Dorks and no doubt regret it by the end of a long weekend of probable poor results. What the heck.

Fremantle by 16